VTsIOM surveyed Russians about their trust in polls

On Tuesday, General Director of VTsIOM Valery Fedorov, as part of the “Universe of Knowledge” marathon, presented at the “Russia” exhibition the results of a survey on the attitude of Russians towards sociologists. As follows from the data obtained, in general, Russians trust representatives of various sociological services and even for the most part believe that the survey results reflect the mood in society. True, more than half of the respondents agreed both that such studies help authorities make the right decisions, and that their results are often fabricated in order to influence people. Even in an era of turbulence, the demand for opinion polls from the authorities is high, and people perceive sociologists themselves as representatives of the authorities, according to outside experts.

The study, presented by Valery Fedorov on November 14 as part of the “Universe of Knowledge” marathon (it was conducted jointly with the “Knowledge” society), is a monitoring study and has been carried out regularly since 2005. The last measurement took place on November 5, 2023 and, according to Mr. Fedorov, brought rather good news to sociologists. According to these data, 90% of respondents believe that public opinion polls are necessary. In 2022 and 2018, 91% of respondents thought the same, and this figure was minimal in 2013 – 69%. But in assessing the objectivity of the polls, Russians were not so optimistic. Only 73% of respondents this year said that such studies generally reflect public opinion, with 19% holding the opposite point of view.

The question of whether polls help authorities make the right decisions is even more complicated. Sociologists asked respondents to agree or disagree with two judgments. As a result, 66% agreed with the opinion that “survey results are used by authorities, politicians, and entrepreneurs to improve the efficiency of their activities.” But at the same time, 53% of respondents supported the conclusion that the results of such studies “are often fabricated and published in the media in order to influence people to behave in a certain way.”

Valery Fedorov himself, in his speech, inclined listeners to the first answer. To prove that he was right, he spoke about the results of a study by VTsIOM on the issue of renaming Volgograd to Stalingrad, which was carried out in January 2023 against the backdrop of a corresponding proposal from local social activists. The survey showed that 67% of the city’s residents do not support changing its name, and as a result, Volgograd has retained its current name for now. “I have many more such examples,” Mr. Fedorov defended the honor of his professional colleagues.

As another example where a survey could change the authorities’ view of a particular problem, the head of VTsIOM cited an August 2023 study on the attitude of Russians towards migrants. Based on its results, it turned out that 47% of respondents consider labor migration to be a positive phenomenon for the country. “Suddenly, many people said that everything was fine,” explained Mr. Fedorov.

It also follows from the November VTsIOM survey that citizens’ trust in sociologists is growing. True, so far it can only be assessed as a “C plus”, admitted Valery Fedorov: the average rating from those surveyed was 3.6 points on a five-point scale. But last year this parameter was 3.5 points, and in 2018 – 3.3. At the same time, sociologists are trusted approximately equally by men and women (3.5 and 3.7 points, respectively), young people and the older generation (3.5 and 3.6 points), rich and poor (3.8 and 3.3 points), residents of both capitals and rural areas (3.5 and 3.7 points).

Finally, respondents rated their readiness to send their children to study as a sociologist at an average of 2.7 points on the same five-point scale. “Can being a sociologist be your dream job? I am absolutely convinced that yes, it can. But Russian society doesn’t think so yet,” Valery Fedorov commented on these figures.

Sociologist, director of political analysis at INSOMAR Viktor Poturemsky, based on his work experience, notes that in recent years the demand for sociological research has been growing among potential customers. “Everyone understands that in conditions of turbulence it is necessary, on the contrary, to constantly have a thermometer of public sentiment. Sociology is exactly that. It was actively addressed both in the Covid era and now, when a special military operation is taking place,” explains the expert. In his opinion, talk about how sociology now does not reflect the real sentiments of citizens is an attempt to deprive society of an important tool for describing its internal state.

In turn, political scientist Alexei Makarkin points out that the majority of the population is conformist, does not want to quarrel with anyone or enter into conflicts, and these people completely trust polls. Moreover, they often perceive the sociologist himself as a representative of the authorities and through him they try to convey some information “to the top”, to share their opinion, the expert says: “People through the sociologist try to advise the authorities on something, hoping that in this way the advice will reach they will reach her. Therefore, trust in sociologists is quite high.” Self-censorship, as a rule, is activated on sensitive issues and only for a certain part of citizens whose opinions differ from the opinions of the majority, the political scientist concludes.

Andrey Vinokurov