VTB predicts Russian GDP growth by 0.9% in 2024 and the dollar at 90 rubles.

The broker “VTB My Investments” presented a macroeconomic forecast for Russia for 2024 at the VTB forum “Russia Calling!” The company expects GDP growth to be around 0.9%. Monetary policy may remain “quite tight” due to the Central Bank’s desire to return inflation to the target 4%.

Forecast “VTB My Investments”:

• Inflation at the end of 2023: 7.5%, in 2024 – above the target 4%. Central Bank predicts inflation of 7–7.5% in 2023, 4–4.5% in 2024.
• Key rate: average in 2024 – 14.4%, at the end of the year – 13%. Now the rate is 15% per annum, VTB predicts its growth to 16% in December.
• The average price of Brent in 2024 is $87 per barrel, Urals – $78 per barrel.
• The price of gold by the end of the year is $2.2 thousand per ounce.
• The dollar exchange rate is on average 90 rubles in 2024, by the end of the year – 92 rubles, the yuan – 12 rubles. and 12.3 rub. respectively.

The investment strategy of the VTB broker assumes a dividend yield of 10.3% over a 12-month horizon. The fair level of the Moscow Exchange index is 3242 points. Analysts note interest in shares of the financial and consumer sectors against the backdrop of increased interest rates and dividend payment plans, as well as securities of transport and IT companies. Shares of mid- and small-cap companies remain the source of increased returns. The broker’s analysts highlight OFZs with floating coupons and “replacement” bonds.

The Ministry of Economy expects GDP growth in 2024 by 2.3%, the Central Bank – by 0.5–1.5%, rating agency ACRA — 0.5–1.3%, Sberbank – 1.2%.

About the growth of the Russian economy – in the material “Kommersant” “The Ninth Wave of Prosperity”.

Leonid Uvarchev