Viktor Orban urged to prevent the Ukrainian counteroffensive from unfolding

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on June 2 in an interview with radio station Kossuth declaredthat the promised major offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine threatens to turn into a “carnage”, so you need to start negotiations before it starts.

“We must do everything before the start of the counterattack to convince the parties of the need for a ceasefire and the start of peace negotiations,” Orban said, stressing that, in the opinion of Hungary, the parties to the conflict should have “strived for peace from the very beginning.” Commenting on the words of the Hungarian prime minister, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on June 2 that Moscow does not yet see the prerequisites for negotiations with Kiev.

He noted that there is “more and more talk about the peace process” in Europe. “True, in these arguments there is no political will to take into account the goals and concerns of our country. For us, this is a top priority,” Peskov said.

Hungary’s consistent position is due to its economic and energy ties with Russia, the conviction of limiting NATO’s tasks to self-defense and difficult relations with Ukraine, says Kirill Temeretsky, an expert at the HSE CCEMI: “Budapest is concerned about the fate of the Hungarian minority and its mobilization in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.”

As a result of the two-day summit of the European Political Community in Chisinau, which ended on June 2 (47 European states, including both the EU countries and Ukraine), the EU countries did not voice a consolidated opinion on the issue of providing Kiev with the security guarantees it needs. No positive response was given regarding Ukraine’s entry into NATO.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, who on May 29 announced that Kiev had approved the timing of the offensive, on June 1 in Chisinau demanded from Europe both clear security guarantees and a firm “invitation” to NATO membership. Following the meetings, the President of Ukraine stressed that the formula for peace “can only be ours,” referring to the 10-point plan he presented at the G20 summit in November 2022. Among them are a certain “new security architecture” (the so-called “Kiev Pact”), “restoration of the country’s territorial integrity” with the withdrawal of Russian troops, etc.

Responding to Zelensky’s inquiries, French President Emmanuel Macron on June 1 at a press conference in Chisinau stressed the need to develop “security guarantees” for Ukraine, noting that so far its “full entry into NATO is impossible.” “A very clear message of immediate support and guarantees is needed, and clear perspectives are needed,” the French president said, noting that they could be given at the alliance’s July summit in Vilnius. Macron assured that he was working on guarantees for Ukraine with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and would discuss them with him on Tuesday June 7 in Potsdam. Before the summit, on May 31, Macron, speaking at the Globsec forum in Bratislava, allowed the “calibration” of assistance to Ukraine in the event that the conflict goes into a protracted phase. According to him, if “the hostilities continue, we will have to reconsider the situation.”

The EU and, first of all, France are waiting for the results of the announced Ukrainian offensive with the military-technical and financial support of the West and so far do not want to tie their hands with obligations, says Pavel Timofeev, head of the department of European political studies at IMEMO RAS. This explains the unwillingness of either Macron or Scholz to make public even the outlines of security guarantees that are being prepared, the expert believes.

Speaking in Chisinau, Scholz agreed with Macron on NATO membership for Ukraine, and expressed readiness to talk about security guarantees only after the end of the conflict. He hinted that the guarantees would be different from direct membership in the alliance. “Given the current situation, we are not talking about membership [в НАТО] We should all focus on how we can support Ukraine,” Scholz said.

The Chisinau site did not imply the announcement of clear answers about the fate of Ukraine’s application to NATO, given that neither France nor Germany are interested in its inclusion in the alliance under current conditions under the threat of its direct clash with Russia, Artem Sokolov, a researcher at the IMI MGIMO, emphasizes. It is worth remembering that it was Berlin’s position that predetermined in 2008 the failure to provide a membership action plan to Kyiv, and echoes of this position are visible now, says Sokolov.