Vedomosti consensus forecast: the Central Bank will raise the rate to 14%

The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia at the next meeting, which will take place on October 27, will continue to tighten monetary policy (MP) and raise the key rate, according to all analysts interviewed by Vedomosti. Most experts (16 out of 18) predict the increase will be at least 100 basis points (bps) to 14%. Moreover, some of them allow a more stringent rate increase scenario – up to 15%. Five analysts voted for this option.

The regulator’s decision at the previous meeting was difficult to predict – the opinions of analysts surveyed by Vedomosti were equally divided (one part of the experts expected the rate to remain the same, the other expected an increase, opinions on his step also varied). As a result, on September 15, the Bank of Russia raised the rate from 12 to 13%, explaining this decision by the persistence of high inflationary pressure. At the same time, the regulator made it clear that the increase ceiling has not yet been reached. “The Bank of Russia will evaluate the feasibility of further increasing the key rate at its upcoming meetings,” stated the Central Bank’s press release.