Vedomosti consensus forecast: the Central Bank will not change the key rate for the sixth time in a row

The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia on Friday, June 9, will make a decision on the key rate. Vedomosti has prepared a consensus forecast based on estimates from leading financial institutions. Most of the polled analysts – 16 out of 20 – expect the key rate to remain at 7.5%. Four experts predict the possibility of considering the issue of increasing the rate by 0.25–0.5 percentage points. None of the interviewed analysts suggested that the Central Bank of Russia would increase the key rate by a significant amount or reduce it.

At the last meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank on April 28, the regulator left the key rate unchanged for the fifth time in a row. The balance of risks for inflation has not changed significantly since the previous meeting of the Board of Directors, the Central Bank said in a statement following the meeting. At the same time, the Bank of Russia gave a signal to raise the rate at future meetings “in the face of a gradual increase in current inflationary pressures.” The decision was expected: the economists polled by Vedomosti unanimously predicted such a move. One out of 20 experts allowed it to increase by 50 bp. p., another economist considered unlikely, but did not rule out an increase of 25 bp. P.