Valdai experts named the three most promising partners for Russia in ASEAN

Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand are among Russia’s promising partners in Southeast Asia, given the geopolitical changes caused by the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine and the associated Western sanctions against Moscow. Russia is building up bilateral trade and economic ties with most states in the region, and they are ready to deepen cooperation. This is stated in the report of the International Discussion Club “Valdai” “Russia and Asia: the paradoxes of the new reality”, which was reviewed by “Vedomosti”.

According to the authors of the study, throughout its recent history until February 2022, Russia preferred to maintain close political contacts with most of the states of Southeast Asia, without strengthening economic ties with them. But the aggravation of the geopolitical situation around Ukraine has made adjustments, experts say. Against this background, Valdai analysts identified four models of the attitude of Asian states towards Russia:

■ informal support (Vietnam, Laos, Indonesia);

■ constructive neutrality (Philippines, Thailand, Brunei, Malaysia);

■ active support (Myanmar);

■ public distancing (Singapore, Cambodia).

The countries of the first group do not support the isolation of Russia and are trying to strengthen the strategic partnership between the states, taking into account the current geopolitical situation. They have not joined the anti-Russian sanctions, remain neutral and aim to increase trade and economic ties with Moscow.

This group includes one of the most promising, according to experts, partners of Russia in the new conditions – Indonesia. At the end of 2022, bilateral trade increased by 40% and amounted to $3.3 billion. In addition, the authors of the report note that at the beginning of the year, Jakarta began negotiations on the creation of a free trade zone of this country with the EAEU and seeks to join the BRICS. In March 2023, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced the introduction of a simplified visa regime with Indonesia.

On the Ukrainian track, the Indonesian government showed itself in June. At the summit, the Shangri-La Dialogue proposed a draft settlement of the Ukrainian crisis, which provides for the creation of a demilitarized zone, the deployment of international peacekeeping forces and the holding of a referendum under the auspices of the UN in the “disputed territories”.

Experts note that Vietnam has been traditional since Soviet times and a promising partner for Moscow. At the end of last year, the trade turnover between Russia and Vietnam amounted to $3.5 billion. According to Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Dmitry Chernyshenko, by 2025 the countries plan to bring this figure to $10 billion. As part of the expansion of Russian-Vietnamese cooperation, the parties plan to form working groups in the near future for coordination in the field of transport, information and communication technologies.

This year, Moscow and Hanoi, despite the Ukrainian conflict, entered into an agreement on scientific cooperation between the academies of sciences in order to create a joint research and development center in the field of artificial intelligence and digital technologies in the Vietnamese capital. In addition, during the voting in the UN General Assembly, Vietnam abstained on anti-Russian resolutions.

The second group is neutral. But here, Valdai experts single out Thailand as the most promising country for cooperation. This state refused to vote at the UN General Assembly for anti-Russian resolutions three times, but under pressure from the West, in February it supported one of the documents on Ukraine.

Thailand has not joined the sanctions against Moscow, and is consistently in the top 5 states among ASEAN members with the highest foreign trade turnover with the Russian Federation. In the coming years, the parties aim to increase trade from $1.8 billion to $10 billion.

The institutional infrastructure for economic cooperation is provided by the Joint Russian-Thai Commission, which includes government officials and businessmen. Thailand is the largest transport hub in Southeast Asia and could potentially become Russia’s additional “gateway” to a market with a population of 660 million people, Valdai experts believe.

In December 2022, Thai Ambassador to Moscow Sasivat Wongsinsawat said that his country was ready to supply auto components to Russia, but was waiting for detailed lists of required models and volumes from authorities and businesses. In the same year, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov asked the Thai government to connect to the Mir payment system and support the use of an accompanying bank card by Russian citizens. At the moment, the governments of the two countries continue negotiations on this issue.

Myanmar, which has been dominated by the military since the 2021 coup, has been openly politically supportive of Russia amid the Ukraine conflict, and the country’s public figures have repeatedly criticized the West in the context of the fighting. Russia consistently remains the country’s largest supplier of weapons – 43% in 2001-2022. from total imports follows from the SIPRI data. In addition, Valdai experts note that the Myanmar authorities are cooperating with Moscow in the fuel and energy sector and in the field of nuclear energy, and the central banks of the two countries have agreed to use the Mir payment system, which is expected to start working in Myanmar in December 2023. .

The prospects for the development of economic cooperation with other states are not so clearly emphasized by experts. For example, according to the authors of the report, Singapore, in contrast to Myanmar, is the only ASEAN member state that directly condemned Moscow’s actions in Ukraine and joined Western sanctions. The Russian government has included this country in the list of unfriendly states. However, trade and economic ties between Russia and Singapore have been preserved: last year, both countries traded $2.47 billion, in 2021 this figure amounted to $2.2 billion.

Many states of Southeast Asia prefer to maintain political and economic ties with Russia, including due to the latter’s lack of negative historical experience in the region, believes Ekaterina Koldunova, director of the ASEAN Center, Associate Professor of Oriental Studies at MGIMO.

Russia has a tradition of many years of friendly political contacts with the region: the expert recalled that in the 1960s, shortly after the liberation of Jakarta from colonial independence from the Netherlands, under President Sukarno, Moscow provided massive assistance to Indonesia. And at the beginning of the last century, the Russian imperial court maintained friendly relations with the kingdom of Siam (since 1939 – Thailand), when it fought to maintain its independence from France and Great Britain. “This experience forms a positive background for the development of Russia’s relations with the countries of Southeast Asia,” the expert says.

By maintaining political ties with Russia, the Asian elites demonstrate the independence of their states, for which they had to pay dearly during the period of decolonization, Koldunova continues. On the other hand, they are not interested in revising the international order and in global contradictions spilling over into their region. “The countries of Southeast Asia depend on the West in the military-technical and intelligence spheres. They fear secondary sanctions,” Koldunova concluded.