US national debt will become the main threat to the global economy in 2024 – Kommersant
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The increase in the volume of public debt of the United States poses the main threat to the global economy in 2024, says the Roscongress report “Key Events 2024. Geoeconomics. Forecasts. Main risks.”
“Given the current ratio of the US national debt, its growth rate and the dynamics of budget revenues, it is mathematically impossible to pay off. Over the medium term, it will cost $1 trillion a year to service the US debt. At the same time, it is impossible to restart the printing press in 2024 – this is a return to the old paradigm leading to increased inflation,” the report says (quoted from “RIA News”).
Roscongress experts explain that excess debt was accumulated at low rates, and the need to refinance it arose at high rates, which themselves limit economic activity and reduce cash flow.
On January 3, it became known that the US government debt exceeded $34 trillion, which is a record high. Significant national debt does not yet seem to put pressure on the American economy, but its continued growth in the coming decades could threaten national security and such significant spending items as Social Security and Medicare, ABC News notes. At the same time, the next clashes in Congress over the debt limit could become a financial risk if investors are not confident in the US’s readiness to repay the debt.
Large foreign buyers of US government bonds, such as China, Japan, South Korea and European countries, have already reduced their investments in them. According to the Peterson Foundation, foreign investment in US government bonds peaked at 49% in 2011 and fell to 30% by the end of 2022.
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