US GDP slowed down growth
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US GDP on an annualized basis (that is, if it changed at the same pace throughout the year) in the fourth quarter of 2022 grew by 2.9% after increasing by 3.2% in the third quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced yesterday preliminary data Ministry of Commerce of this country. The indicator turned out to be higher than expected – analysts predicted growth at the level of 2.6%. In annual terms (to the fourth quarter of 2021), US GDP increased by 1% against growth of 1.9% in the third quarter.
The recorded slowdown in growth compared to the third quarter is primarily due to a reduction in exports and a slowdown in the growth of capital expenditures and consumption in the United States, the bureau said. Consumption year on year increased by 2.1%, investment – by 1.4% (at the same time, capital investments decreased by 6.7%, and investments in real estate – by 26.7% at once). US exports decreased by 1.3%, imports – by 4.6%.
At the end of 2022, US GDP increased by 2.1% (in current prices – up to $ 25.5 trillion), a year earlier, against the backdrop of a post-COVID recovery, growth was 5.9% (in 2020 there was a decline of 2.8%). The main contribution to the growth last year was made by the increase in consumption by 2.8% yoy. At the same time, the demand for services increased by 4.5%, while the consumption of goods decreased by 0.4%. Investment increased by 3.8%, while capex fell by 0.3% and real estate investment by 10.7% (a positive contribution was provided by rising inventories).
Exports of goods and services for 2022 in the United States grew by 7.2%, imports – by 8.1%. Government spending, on the other hand, decreased by 0.6%, including federal budget spending by 2.5% (for defense – by 2.8%, for other areas – by 2.2%). The total spending of the US state budget in 2022 amounted to $4.5 trillion, of which $1.65 trillion was allocated at the federal level, $2.8 trillion at the state and municipal level.
“Monthly dynamics suggests that the US economy began to slow down towards the end of 2022 – consumption has been declining in the last two months, the decline in capital investment also turned out to be worse than expected,” Capital Economics notes. Experts still expect that the US Fed’s rate hike will lead to a slight recession in the US economy in the first half of 2023.
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