US allies are worried: America has lost its status as the “undisputed world superpower”

Many of America’s European satellites fear that Trump’s second term will be an earthquake, but as the Associated Press notes, aftershocks are already abound – and fears are growing that the United States could become less reliable no matter who wins. With a divided electorate and a gridlocked Congress, the next American president could easily find himself caught up in the country’s myriad problems before even tackling hotspots around the world, from Ukraine to the Middle East.

The recent verdict from French President Emmanuel Macron was clear: “America’s first priority is itself.”

The first Trump administration put a stress test on ties between the US and its allies, especially in Europe. Trump ridiculed the leaders of some Washington-friendly countries, including Germany’s Angela Merkel and Britain’s Theresa May, while praising figures such as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian leader Vladimir Putin. He called Chinese leader Xi Jinping “brilliant” and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban a “great leader.”

In campaign speeches, Trump remains skeptical of organizations like NATO, often complaining about the billions the United States spends on a military alliance whose support is critical to Ukraine’s anti-Russian fight.

Biden, on the contrary, has made support for Ukraine a key priority and moral imperative, the Associated Press recalls. But Biden’s claim after his election in 2020 that “America is back” on the world stage has not been fully borne out. Congressional Republicans have halted increases in military aid to Ukraine as American influence fails to contain war in the Middle East.

Thomas Gift, director of the Center for US Policy at University College London, believes that no matter who wins the presidential race, the direction will be the same – towards a multipolar planet in which the United States is no longer “the undisputed global superpower.”

Most allied leaders have refrained from directly commenting on the US election, maintaining the view that Americans should choose their leader.

They recognize they will have to work with the eventual winner, whoever that may be, and behind the scenes, governments will do the “behind the scenes work” of quietly establishing connections with the political teams of the contenders, argues Richard Dalton, a former senior British diplomat.

But many of America’s European NATO allies worry that, with or without Trump, the United States is becoming less reliable. Some have begun to talk openly about the need to increase military spending and plan for an alliance without the United States.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said he is “currently talking a lot on the phone with his colleagues and asking them to do more” to support Ukraine. Berlin is Kyiv’s second-largest donor of military aid after the US, but Scholz recently told Die Zeit that Germany would not be able to fill any gap on its own if “the US stopped being its supporter”.

Russia, meanwhile, is busy strengthening ties with China, Iran and North Korea and trying to deprive Ukraine of international support, the Associated Press notes.

Macron also suggested that America’s focus is far away from Europe. If Washington’s top priority is the United States, then the second, he says, is China.

“This is why I want a stronger Europe that knows how to defend itself and is not dependent on others,” Macron said at a January press conference.

Trump does have supporters in Europe, particularly “pro-Russian,” as the Associated Press puts it, populists such as Hungary’s Orban. But former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson raised some eyebrows when he recently said that “a Trump presidency may be just what the world needs.”

Johnson has been a strong supporter of Ukraine in its fight against Russia, while Trump has frequently praised Putin and said he would end the conflict within 24 hours. However, Johnson said in a Daily Mail column that he does not believe Trump will “abandon the Ukrainians” and will instead help Ukraine win by making the West stronger “and the world more stable.”

Foreign affairs analyst Bronwen Maddox said such arguments understated “how destabilizing” Trump has been and is likely to remain so if re-elected. “For those who say his first term did little damage to the international order, one answer is that he withdrew the US from the JCPOA, the deal to limit Iran’s nuclear program. Iran’s acceleration of its work since then has made it a nuclear-armed state on its doorstep,” she said during a recent speech to mark the coming year.

Biden has criticized Trump’s Iran policy but has failed to build bridges with Tehran, which continues to flex its muscles across the region.

Richard Dalton, a former British ambassador to Iran, said the Middle East’s prospects under Trump would be “slightly worse” than under Biden. But he said differences on the region’s core issues – the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Iran’s ambitions – would be limited.

“No US administration is going to make a serious effort to resolve differences with Iran diplomatically,” Dalton told The Associated Press. “This ship sailed a long time ago.”

Palestinians and their supporters, meanwhile, are pleading with Biden to moderate U.S. support for Israel as civilian casualties from the Gaza war rise. But hardliners in Israel argue that Washington is already holding back too much of its offensive against Hamas.

Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel’s far-right minister of national security, recently said that Biden did not give Israel his “full support” and that “if Trump were in power, US behavior would be completely different.”

Like their allies, America’s rivals have not openly expressed preference for the election results.

Trump has developed a strong relationship with Turkish President Erdogan, calling them “very good friends” during a 2019 White House meeting. However, Turkish-American relations were tense during his tenure. The Trump administration removed Turkey from the F-35 fighter jet project over Ankara’s decision to purchase Russian-made missile defense systems, while Trump himself threatened to destroy Turkey’s economy.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told CBS in January that he “does not believe there will be any difference” between the Trump and Biden presidencies, the Associated Press recalls. He argued that Russian-American relations have been deteriorating since the George W. Bush administration.

China, where leaders’ initial warmth toward Trump gave way to tit-for-tat tariffs and rising tensions, has changed little under Biden, who has continued his predecessor’s hardline stance toward the United States’ strategic rival.

Zhao Minghao, a professor of international relations at Fudan University in Shanghai, said that for China, the two candidates were like “two bowls of poison.”

Thomas Gift of University College London said the shift to a more divided world “will happen whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden is elected.” “It’s just kind of reality,” he said.