US aid package to Israel passed House unlikely to pass Senate

On November 3, the US House of Representatives approved a separate package of military assistance to Israel, without mentioning Ukraine, in the amount of $14.3 billion. The bill was supported by 226 congressmen, 196 were against it. Together with the Republicans, 12 Democrats voted in favor. The document will now be sent to the Senate for consideration.

Democrats and some Republicans there have already warned that they are not ready to approve the Israel initiative in its current form. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said he has no intention of even considering the House bill as the Senate forms its own proposal. House Speaker Mike Johnson said he plans to put to a vote a package of aid for Ukraine, combined with funds for strengthening the border.

On October 31, Republicans in the House of Representatives, led by Johnson, announced their intention to bring to a vote a bill providing for the allocation of funds for military aid to Israel. The bill has drawn criticism from both Democrats and some Republicans. The dissatisfaction consisted of two features. The document did not take into account spending on Ukraine and US allies in the Asia-Pacific region, which Joe Biden requested from Congress on October 20 (amounting to $105.85 billion).

Democrats were outraged by the way funds were financed for Israel. According to the plan by Johnson and his allies in the House, the allocated amount is proposed to be covered by cutting the budget of the US Internal Revenue Service (IRS). The Congressional Budget Office said the cuts to tax dollars would reduce government revenue by $26.8 billion between 2024 and 2033. and will increase the deficit by $12.5 billion over the same period due to reduced tax revenues.

The White House said on November 1 that if the bill is approved by Congress, Biden could use the veto. Presidential representatives emphasized that the document “in its current form” does not take into account modern realities and US national security interests. The administration is also dissatisfied with the lack of funds in the bill for humanitarian aid for Gaza.

The President can veto a bill approved by both houses of Congress. But a veto can be overridden if the bill receives a two-thirds vote in both the House and Senate. If within the next 10 days after approval by both houses the president still does not sign the bill, it still becomes law.

The bill will almost certainly fail in the Senate if the Republicans somehow fail to take into account military aid for Ukraine, says Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics. At the same time, the expert explains, Biden must understand that blocking aid to Israel could result in another impeachment process for him.

Suslov believes that eventually both Israel and Ukraine will receive funds from the Americans. But, in his opinion, the latter may be allocated less funds than Biden requested on October 20 and later: “This is all a matter of bargaining between Democrats and Republicans.”