Unrealistic growth promised to real wages
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According to new estimates by the Ministry of Economy, by the end of this year, wages in real terms (adjusted for inflation) will grow by 5.4%, in nominal terms the growth will be 10.9%. In 2024-2026, the growth in real wages will decrease to about 2.5%. Recall that at the end of 2022, salaries increased in nominal terms by 12.6%, but due to high inflation in real terms, they decreased by 1%.
The Ministry of Economy believes that the growth of real wages will be facilitated by a slowdown in inflation, low unemployment and competition among employers for personnel. Recall that in February, unemployment has updated a historical low of 3.5%. In 2023-2026, according to the forecast of the Ministry of Economy, it will remain approximately at the same level. Among the reasons for this is the entry into the labor market of a relatively small generation born in the 1990s, partial mobilization and voluntary participation in the military operation, the departure of some workers abroad (for more details, see Kommersant of November 22).
If we assume that all these factors will continue to affect the labor market in the future, then the forecast of the Ministry of Economy seems quite realistic. However, according to Igor Polyakov, an expert of the CMASF, due to various reasons, it is still possible for manufacturers to reduce the output of a number of categories of goods – in this case, due to a lower need for labor, by the end of 2023, the unemployment rate may rise to 4%.
It should be noted that, according to the CMASF alternative forecast, salaries are unlikely to increase by more than 1–2% in real terms by the end of this year. Similarly, the dynamics of salary offers are assessed by recruitment agencies – so far, representatives of certain professions rather than broad categories of employees can count on a significant increase in salaries (for more details, see Kommersant of March 27).
In addition to wage growth, the Ministry of Economy also expects an increase in real incomes of the population: by 3.4% in 2023, by 2.6% in 2024–2025, and by 2.7% in 2026. In addition to salaries, growth factors will be targeted assistance to families with children, indexation of the minimum wage, the living wage, pensions, social benefits and benefits. Recall that targeted payments in Russia now receive about a third of all families with children.
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