United Russia received 1 million more votes than five years ago

In the elections to the legislative assemblies of 16 regions, United Russia received 4,678,843 votes, which is 936,466 more than in the same regions in 2018. These are votes cast for party lists in all regions, except for four new ones – there are elections according to Russian laws were not implemented five years ago. Secretary of the General Council of United Russia Andrei Turchak, speaking about the voting results on the morning of September 11, said that the party had improved its results everywhere compared to 2018.

The party in power significantly improved its position everywhere except Kalmykia, where it scored 64.17%, slightly less than five years ago, both in percentage terms and in absolute numbers. The party in power in the elections on September 10 was supported by 54,064 voters, which is 22,912 votes less than in 2018, when United Russia received 68.58% of the votes. But United Russia did not lose control of parliament.

Before these elections in Kalmykia, on the initiative of the new head of the republic, Batu Khasikov (United Russia), the system of elections to the khural was changed: from the proportional order of parliamentary formation (all 27 deputies were elected according to party lists) they moved to a mixed one, when only 10 list members remained, and the other 17 deputies ran in single-member constituencies. On March 31, Vedomosti wrote that the Republican Election Commission adopted the so-called petal division of districts, when urban municipalities are connected to rural ones, and districts or parts thereof are connected to each other in order to reduce their protest potential. “The result in Kalmykia, I think, is within normal limits, given that there is quite serious internal opposition there among the head of the region, Batu Khasikov. Considering the entire set of introductory information, Khasikov did a good job,” says political scientist Evgeniy Minchenko.

United Russia candidates won in all single-mandate constituencies, and the party in power received 24 parliamentary seats. “In the previous convocation, United Russia had 21 mandates. If you look at it from this angle, then this, of course, seems to be a very good result for the party in power in the republic. At the same time, the representation of parties in the new convocation will increase. If before the EDG-2023 there were four communists and two Right Russia members in the khural, now there will be one deputy each from A Just Russia – For Truth, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and New People,” political scientist, expert of the Polilog Group Alexander told Vedomosti Hazaridi.

A special feature of the past regional elections was the high results of United Russia in regions that were traditionally considered problematic for it. For example, in the elections of deputies to the Legislative Assembly of the Trans-Baikal Territory, United Russia received more than twice as many votes – 116,776 – as five years ago (49,663). In 2018, the result of the party in power in Transbaikalia (28.3%) was second to last after Khakassia (25.46%), now it received 56.94% of the votes. In the Irkutsk region, where in the elections to the legislative assembly in 2018 the party lost the leadership to the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, gaining 27.83% of the votes, five years later the party in power received significantly more votes: 242,261 versus 136,704.

United Russia managed to achieve high results in the Irkutsk region thanks to the high rating of Governor Igor Kobzev, who heads the regional branch of the party in power and was number one on the list in the elections to the legislative assembly, Minchenko believes. “In Transbaikalia, an administrative machine has been rebuilt, which was not the case under previous governors,” he says.

Also, many more voters voted for United Russia than in 2018 in the Ivanovo (170,779 versus 90,610) and Smolensk (138,965 versus 66,135) regions. In these regions, in parallel with the deputies of legislative assemblies, governors were elected: Stanislav Voskresensky was re-elected to a second term in the Ivanovo region, and the ex-director of the department of regional development of the Russian government Vasily Anokhin got rid of the “acting” prefix in the Smolensk region. Both were nominated by United Russia. The acting governor of the Smolensk region created an “atmosphere of hope” in the region after the departure of the not very popular governor Alexei Ostrovsky (from the LPDR), says Minchenko.

By almost 7,000 votes more than in 2018, United Russia won 170,832 (54.36%) in the elections to the parliament of Yakutia. It is worth noting that second place here was taken by “New People”, the list of which was headed by the ex-mayor of Yakutsk, State Duma deputy Sardana Avksentyeva. This is the best result of “New People” in elections to legislative assemblies in Russia during the existence of the party (since 2020).

In Yakutia, where there is a demand for something new, the electoral “locomotive” in the person of Avksentieva has worked, says political scientist Konstantin Kalachev. “Previously, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and A Just Russia achieved success in the region, but people were disappointed in them, tired of them and their leaders. People voted for the party that looked the most active, vibrant, and oppositional,” he told Vedomosti. According to the expert, Avksentieva “used the topic of counter-positioning very well, including declaring that if you vote for the New People, the next head of Yakutia will be a candidate from the New People.” “She accumulated protest votes,” the political scientist concluded.

The increase in the total number of votes for the United Russia lists in this election cycle does not surprise experts. 2018 was the most difficult year for United Russia. “This was the year of pension reform, a peak year for the opposition,” says political scientist Alexander Kynev.

Political scientist Konstantin Kostin attributes the improvement in United Russia’s position to the fact that voters see its support as maintaining stability. “The factor of the new normal and the factor of delayed choice certainly work for the authorities, for the party in power, for those nominated by the authorities [сейчас] candidates,” he says.

Therefore, Kostin notes, in 2024 the campaign “will be plebiscitary.” The decision on the scheme for nominating a presidential candidate “will be made in a more complex system of coordinates,” says Viktor Poturemsky, director of political analysis at Insomar, and not only the party’s electoral support will be taken into account.