Unemployment was left for the fall – Newspaper Kommersant No. 142 (7343) of 08/08/2022

Economics Minister Maksim Reshetnikov expects Russia’s record low unemployment rate to rise slightly in the fall, as evidenced by rising rates of underemployment at enterprises, he said. So far, according to surveys by the Gaidar Institute, the proportion of workers who have been transferred to a shorter working day, sent on vacation or are in a state of downtime, are below the March values. According to the CMASF, this does not rule out an autumn rise in unemployment – the behavior of companies that have so far taken a wait-and-see attitude and retained jobs may change, and record low unemployment may turn into simply low.

The unemployment rate in Russia may rise slightly this autumn. Economics Minister Maksim Reshetnikov shared these fears at a meeting on supporting the economy in Yekaterinburg on Friday. “In our country, indeed, for the second month in a row, unemployment has been at a record low of 3.9%. At the same time, in a number of sectors, in a number of enterprises, we see that there is an increase in part-time employment – these are indicators that need to be closely monitored. We think that in autumn we will, unfortunately, move away from these record low values,” the minister said.

Maxim Reshetnikov explained that the updated macro forecast, which will include unemployment figures for 2023-2025, will be presented by the agency next week.

The minister noted that enterprises are “looking for work modes that will allow them to maintain full employment,” and recalled that the authorities have allocated considerable funds to support them, modifying the forms of assistance in industries that have faced restrictions.

By data Rosstat, since the beginning of this year, despite sanctions and problems in the economy, the unemployment rate in the country has been declining almost monthly – if in January it was 4.4%, then by June it dropped to 3.9%.

Thus, this year the trend of 2021 on the recovery of employment continued after a sharp increase in the number of unemployed during the pandemic.

Recallat its peak in August 2020, 6.4% of the economically active population were officially unemployed.

The current stability of the level of employment in the labor market, as follows from the July monitoring of the economic situation by the Gaidar Institute (IEP), can hardly be explained by the use of mechanisms at enterprises for the hidden optimization of personnel costs – laying down, sending on unpaid leave or transfer to part-time work. According to the IEP survey, the majority of respondents (90%) continued to work as usual in June (in March, there were 92% of such respondents). Only 4% of employees were transferred to a shorter working day, sent on regular or forced leave with or without partial pay (5% in March).

The share of employees working at enterprises in a state of idle time has also changed insignificantly. 5% of the employed are now in this situation (in March – 6%). At the same time, in June, respondents slightly more often noted an increase in wages and a little less often – its decrease. Finally, the proportion of those surveyed who experienced wage arrears dropped from 8% in March to 5% in June.

However, judging by the assessments of the CMASF experts, all this does not exclude the rise in unemployment this autumn.

They note that many companies, primarily foreign ones, have so far taken a wait-and-see attitude and retained jobs. In the future, the situation may begin to differ greatly in the regional context – the problem of unemployment will be more acute for “industrial”, and not for “service” regions. In addition, they remind the CMASF, the loss of jobs can occur not only because of the crisis in the economy, but also because of the automation of labor, the potential of which in Russia is quite large. By 2030, for example, it could make up to 3 million wholesale jobs unnecessary.

Anastasia Manuylova