Under what conditions are Afghanistan’s neighbors ready to help it?

The countries neighboring Afghanistan are ready to help the country under the rule of the Taliban (the movement is recognized as a terrorist and banned in Russia) if it respects women’s rights and creates an inclusive government. These theses were announced in a joint statement by the foreign ministers of the countries of the “Afghan four” (Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan), adopted on the sidelines of a conference of countries – neighbors of Afghanistan in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. The results of the meeting were set out in a message on the official website of the Russian Foreign Ministry. It follows from the document that the Taliban must guarantee the rights of women and girls to work and education, as well as organize the representation of key ethno-political groups in power. At the same time, neighboring countries are ready “to assist Kabul in stepping up efforts to eradicate terrorism and drug crime, improve the socio-economic situation in the country.” In addition, four states blamed the deplorable situation in Afghanistan on the United States and other Western countries that took part in the 20-year NATO campaign on its territory. Consequently, the Russian Foreign Ministry concluded, the West must assume the main financial burden for the post-conflict reconstruction of Afghanistan.

Representatives of four states, including Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Chinese counterpart Qin Gang, demanded that the Taliban government lift the restrictions imposed on women and national minorities and noted that the Taliban did not provide the necessary level of security for foreign organizations and citizens. The current Afghan authorities must also take action to combat terrorists. At the same time, the neighboring countries of Afghanistan are ready to help its economy. “The ministers expressed their readiness to continue to maintain peace in Afghanistan and its reconstruction, to make [с Афганистаном] economic and trade transactions, as well as invest with the assistance of the countries of the region and the international community,” the statement said. Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang specifically called on the United States to lift its unilateral sanctions against Afghanistan. According to the Chinese diplomat, the West needs to stop taking measures in line with Cold War thinking, because Afghanistan “should become a new platform for cooperation.”

The Taliban came to power in Afghanistan in August 2021, overthrowing the pro-American government of President Ashraf Ghani. The movement mainly consists of Pashtuns, representatives of other national and religious groups (for example, Tajiks or Shiites) in the Taliban government are either poorly represented or not represented at all. After seizing power, the Taliban effectively banned women’s education and restricted women’s right to travel.

The interest of Russia and China in the Afghan problem is understandable – by leaving, the United States threw all the problems on the countries – neighbors of Afghanistan, notes HSE Professor Andrei Kazantsev. At the same time, despite the satisfaction of Moscow and Beijing with the US withdrawal, it is not entirely clear what to do with Afghanistan. During their rule, the Taliban, the expert continues, clearly showed that they do not go beyond beautiful promises and they will not make decisions that contradict their ideology. In addition, the very ability of the Taliban to make decisions in principle is doubtful – according to Kazantsev, there is a strong split in the ranks of the movement. As for the call for the lifting of sanctions, given the bad relations between Russia and China with Washington, it will remain unanswered, as well as the requests of the Taliban to return to them the frozen assets of Afghanistan in the United States.

The meeting in Samarkand is another attempt to achieve a regional consensus on Afghanistan, Andrey Serenko, an expert at the Center for the Study of Modern Afghanistan, notes. Moscow, Beijing, and other countries of the region have been trying to solve this problem for more than two years, but so far without success because of the difference in interests. At the same time, the situation inside Afghanistan is getting worse all the time, neighboring countries are forced to react to this and do something, even if the chances of a practical result are low. Serenko is confident that Kabul will not fulfill the demands put forward at the meeting, because those people who came to the meeting from the Taliban government do not make decisions. The crisis will deepen until changes begin to take place within Afghanistan itself, Serenko said. They can be caused, for example, by the struggle between different factions of the Taliban for power and the victory of a faction more inclined to heed recommendations from outside. Other options are to strengthen the positions of either the anti-Taliban National Resistance Front of Afghanistan, or ISIS (recognized as terrorist and banned in Russia), which will advance its agenda. In the latter case, Serenko concludes, not diplomats, but the military will have to intervene in Afghan affairs.