Ukraine returned more prisoners to Russia due to summer deception

Ivan Melnikov: “They don’t always change according to the 50/50 formula”

The topic of yesterday’s exchange of prisoners of war between Russia and Ukraine continues to unfold in the format: more Russians were returned than Ukrainians.

The day before the figure was announced: 225 Russians for 150 Ukrainians, that is, we got a plus of 75 people. However, today the Ukrainian media have already refuted this information and stated that 230 Ukrainians returned home (the number of Russian military personnel is 248), it turns out that the advantage of the Russian Federation in this matter has been reduced to 18 people. But this, too, may not be the final result. How true this is is not very clear; perhaps this misconception is intended to reassure Ukrainian society, dissatisfied with such an unequal exchange. And since information about exchanges is absolutely closed to the public, you can play with the final numbers as you like and in any direction, you still can’t check.

The Ukrainians also announced that among those returned home there were six civilians.

We asked experts why Kyiv could agree to such an unequal exchange and when to expect the next round?

Larisa Shesler, Chairman of the Union of Political Emigrants and Political Prisoners of Ukraine.

– I believe these numbers are not accidental; there are more Russian military personnel due to the fact that Ukraine last year violated the rules when exchanging Azov commanders (recognized in the Russian Federation as a terrorist organization and banned in Russia). Instead of staying in Turkey until the end of hostilities, as Erdogan and Zelensky guaranteed, they almost immediately went home and returned to the regiment. That is why, most likely, there were no new exchanges for a very long time. They could have been deliberately slowed down by our side, outraged by what happened to the “Azovites.” Russia could now demand several people for each Azov citizen released earlier. But since all the details of such agreements remain behind the scenes, we cannot say exactly how the negotiations went and how the Ukrainian side was eventually able to push through, insist on its position and force it to take into account the previously given Azov military personnel in the last exchange. But the fact that they finally agreed on this is proven by the exchange figures and the advantage of the Russians.

Ivan Melnikov, Vice-President of the Russian Division, International Committee for the Defense of Human Rights.

– It doesn’t always happen that they change according to the “50/50” formula; there may be a different format, which depends on different circumstances. Let us remember the same exchange of Medvedchuk, then Ukraine received more people. You need to understand that the exact number of prisoners of war is unknown, this is absolutely classified information. Therefore, one can only guess how many military personnel are being held on both sides. And who ends up changing faster and who doesn’t, it depends on what.

But most importantly, I believe that for the first time in a long time, civilians were exchanged, not military personnel, but those imprisoned for political reasons. This was announced by Ukraine, which received six people as part of yesterday’s exchange.

In principle, there are no obstacles to the exchange of civilians. Preliminary lists of them have long been compiled. All that remains is to make a fundamental decision about this at the highest level

The topic of exchanging arrested pro-Russian activists held in Ukraine for Russians convicted of politics has indeed been discussed since the beginning of 2023. The State Duma actively advocated the thesis that something needs to be done about this. Ukraine also sent its lists of whom they would like to receive. But the lists were closed – apparently, there were many top names that, of course, no one would have released as part of a mass exchange.

Before the New Year, a desire was voiced to finally create a commission under the Security Council on the issue of the release of pro-Russian civilians serving sentences in Ukraine. But the matter has not yet moved from the “dead point”.