Ukraine recognized the concentration of its troops near the border with Transnistria

Natalia Gumenyuk, spokeswoman for the South Command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, said on February 27 that Ukrainian troops were “concentrated along the entire border of Transnistria” and their numbers were adequate to “existing threats.”

On February 24, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that a “significant accumulation” of personnel and equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was recorded on the border with Transnistria, and this may confirm the preparation of a military provocation, which the Ministry of Defense announced the day before. The Russian military promised to take adequate military response measures in the event of such events. The Moldovan Defense Ministry said on February 23 that it sees no threats on the border with Ukraine, and Russian statements “are designed to cause panic and confusion among people on both sides of the Dniester.”

At the same time, the Moldovan authorities continue to make traditional statements about the need to withdraw the Russian group of 1,500 people from Transnistria. Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on February 21 that the Moldovan authorities should be careful with regard to Transnistria, and the Russian side is closely monitoring the situation.

Ukraine on its own is unlikely to unleash an armed conflict in Transnistria, since this will require US sanctions, signs of which are not visible now, since the conflict in Moldova will cause additional problems for the Americans, says Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. But besides Ukraine, the position of Moldova itself and Romania supporting it is important, the expert says. According to a source close to the Ministry of Defense, it is not yet clear that Moldova is ready for any major armed action against Transnistria.