“Ukraine is behaving recklessly”: political scientist Suzdaltsev assessed the likelihood of extending the gas contract

It’s small at the moment

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, at a meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart Denis Shmygal, said that the transit of Russian pipeline gas through Ukraine could continue in 2025. However, the Ukrainian side refuses to extend the contract. MK is looking into whether the parties will come to an agreement.

On January 24, negotiations took place between the Prime Minister of Slovakia Robert Fitz and the Prime Minister of Ukraine Denis Shmygal. Following the meeting, Fico said: “It has been agreed that the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine is likely to continue, and this is great news.” He noted that thanks to this, Slovakia will also be able to continue gas transit, and this will benefit Austria and Sweden. According to his assumption, agreement on the details of the agreement will be completed in the near future.

However, Shmygal himself did not say anything about gas transit in his report on the meeting. And soon after this, the press service of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, in comments to local media, stated that their position was clear: the contract would not be extended. At the same time, they are ready to negotiate with the European side on the use of their gas transportation network.

Let us remind you that the current contract was concluded in 2019, and its validity expires at the end of 2024. In this regard, in Ukraine there have previously been disputes about whether the contract will be extended or not.

At the end of June, Ukrainian Energy Minister Galushchenko considered the continuation of the contract unlikely. “I really can’t imagine how this could be on a bilateral basis,” the minister told the Financial Times. But the head of Naftogaz, Alexey Chernyshov, on the contrary, stated that Ukraine cannot and should not block pipelines, since it needs income from gas transit. In addition, in this way it will show itself as a reliable economic partner for European countries.

Zelensky’s office and he himself cannot come to any consensus. In April 2023, a plan was presented that proposed ending direct supplies of Russian gas to the European Union, except through Ukraine. And in his speech in Davos, Zelensky hysterically stated that the West is not introducing enough sanctions against Russia. Only at the same time, the President of Square is silent about the fact that gas transit brings Ukraine $2-3 billion a year, which they subsequently spend on their country.

Andrey Suzdaltsev, Deputy Dean of the Faculty of World Economy and International Politics at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, spoke in a conversation with MK about what the debate between Europe, Ukraine and Russia will ultimately lead to, and what will happen if gas stops flowing:

“75 percent that it will not be possible to extend the agreement. The fact is that Slovakia, Romania, and Hungary have a need for Russian gas. It spreads from there and then further. But there are no negotiations between Russia and the Ukrainian side as a transit country. If there are still no negotiations, then there is no talk of continuing.

If supplies stop, it will, of course, be difficult for Europe. In this regard, a good example is the situation with Moldova, when they were in conflict with Gazprom, did not want to repay the debt, and tried to switch to other sources of gas. And we can already begin to see a change in course, when they say that “no, we, in general, are not against Russian gas. Let them supply it.”

Ukraine is now acting recklessly and not thinking about the future. She really needs Russian gas. It’s not even about the economy, but at least about electricity. She now has huge debts, more than the country’s GDP. But they are not going to pay for them. They think they can defeat Russia and they will be forgotten. It’s the same with gas. They have the opinion that once they win, they will no longer have any problems with gas at all: Russia will begin supplying gas and heating to Ukraine for free as reparations.”