two-thirds of respondents support Russia’s reorientation from Western to Eastern countries

Two-thirds of respondents support the reorientation of Russia’s foreign policy from Western to Eastern countries, follows from a survey by the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center devoted to the attitude of Russians to the “pivot to the East.” At the same time, the majority of respondents believe that this policy will be most successful if it is primarily focused on economic cooperation. Only a tenth of the respondents are sure of the similarity between the cultures of Russia and the countries of the East. Experts believe that the public emphasis of Russian high-ranking leaders on rapprochement with Eastern countries has borne fruit in the minds of Russians, but culturally they are still closer to Europe, so if they want to be friends with the East, then for their own benefit.

According to VTsIOM, 67% of Russians support a “pivot to the East,” which suggests that Russia should prioritize developing relations with eastern, rather than western, countries. 11% of respondents do not support this approach, another 15% are indifferent to it. A survey of 1,600 Russians was conducted on August 27 as part of a special project of VTsIOM and Kommersant; the statistical error does not exceed 2.5%.

The least support (48%) for the “pivot to the East” is in the age group of 18-24, but among young people there are much more of those who are indifferent to the change in the foreign policy vector – 34%.

When asked what could contribute to such a turn and make this policy more successful for Russia, 65% chose the option “trade and economic cooperation”, 33% – “tourism and mutual visits of residents” and 32% – “interaction between scientific organizations” . 21% of respondents were in favor of developing cooperation between the military, 20% each supported active interaction between politicians and diplomats and holding various joint events such as the Eastern Economic Forum. The option “creation of interpersonal communication channels between ordinary residents of different countries” was preferred by 15% of respondents.

Sociologists also asked an open question (respondents themselves offered up to five answers) about what associations people have with the countries of the East and Asia in general and, in particular, with China, India, South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, Iran, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.

Most often, these associations turned out to be positive: positive, joy, “it’s high time” to establish ties with them (30%); friendship, good relations, cooperation (14%). Of the negative associations, the most popular (11%) were distrust, cunning, deceit, insecurity, and self-seeking. 4% of respondents believe that cooperation with these countries is unprofitable for Russia in connection with the forgiveness of debts and the sale of resources for next to nothing. Finally, “economics, economic development, sale of resources, import substitution, trade” dominate among neutral associations (7% of responses).

It should be noted that, according to the July VTsIOM poll, 65% of respondents tend to consider Russia a special Eurasian civilization, and only 20% are inclined to believe that it is part of Europe.

However, sociologists themselves consider the relationship between the cultures of Russia and the East as a “debatable issue”, which is also confirmed by the results of the August survey. According to these data, only 11% of Russians believe that the cultures of Russia and the East are in many ways similar, 20% believe that they are “dramatically different”, and 61% chose a neutral answer: “something similar, something different” .

The policy of “pivot to the East” is now going through its third round, says Daniil Yermolin, development director of VTsIOM-consulting. The first talk about this back in the 1990s did not cause a resonance, because the ideas of “Eurasianism” lost out to hopes for building relations with the West. In the 2000s, the turn did not happen due to the inertia of business oriented towards Western markets. “A new call to direct the country’s efforts to the development of relations with the countries of the East appeared in 2012 in Vladimir Putin’s article “Russia and the Changing World.” In the same year, active steps were taken at the APEC forum, confirming Russia’s desire to turn to the East. Response signals were also received, expressed, among other things, in the Belt and Road initiative, presented in 2013, Mr. Yermolin notes. questioned. It was from this moment that the East became more and more firmly fixed in domestic politics and economics. According to the sociologist, the emphasis on the importance of building relationships with Eastern partners in the public space has borne fruit both in terms of Russian awareness and in terms of their attitude towards cooperation with the countries of the Far and Middle East, as well as Central Asia.

Support for the idea of ​​a “turn to the East” is support for the authorities, political scientist Alexei Makarkin gives his interpretation of the poll results. According to him, the state policy in this area is now clearly defined, and a person usually does not want to go into conflict with the state, even psychologically. In addition, in Russia there has almost always been an interest in the countries of the East, and the only period of negative attitude towards this region fell on the first years of perestroika, the expert recalls: “The main argument then was economic: Eastern policy was perceived as costly.” Now the importance of the East as an alternative is increasing, Mr. Makarkin is sure: “Our entrepreneurs, when they are forced out of Europe, go to the United Arab Emirates.”

At the same time, the political scientist identifies a number of problems that do not contribute to the readiness of Russians for too close rapprochement with the East.

“You can talk as much as you like about a special path, but this does not change the fact that Russia is a country of European culture and perceives itself that way,” says Mr. Makarkin. As an example, he cites interest in literature: many Russians know Western authors, while Eastern ones do not arouse such interest. And even in political rhetoric, opponents of the West often appeal to the fact that Russia is just “old Europe”. The second problem is the fear that rapprochement with the East will lead to an increase in migration, Alexey Makarkin continues. Less pronounced, from his point of view, are the fears associated with the growth of dependence on China and, at the same time, with the unwillingness to provide new partners with “gratuitous assistance.” “It turns out that we want to be friends with the East, but first of all with economic benefit for ourselves. Not to support politically, but to cooperate for mutual benefit,” the expert concludes.

Andrey Vinokurov