Türkiye receives US concessions at NATO summit

Turkey expects in the near future to purchase a batch of American F-16 fighters and components for the modernization of the Turkish fleet of these aircraft. This statement was made by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at a press conference following the NATO summit in Vilnius on July 12. The purchase of American aircraft was one of Ankara’s conditions for lifting its veto on Sweden’s membership in the North Atlantic Alliance.

Erdogan added that he will send the approval of Stockholm’s NATO application to the Turkish parliament for ratification after the deputies begin work after the summer holidays in October, and the Swedish authorities send a roadmap to fulfill the requirements of the Turkish side to combat terrorism. Erdogan lifted his veto on Sweden’s admission to NATO on July 11 after Stockholm agreed to support Ankara’s accession to the European Union (EU) and promised to start fighting activists from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (an organization banned in Turkey).

Turkey became a candidate for full EU membership in 1999. But since 2006, negotiations to join the EU have stalled: Brussels accuses the Turkish authorities of violating human rights in the country, and Erdogan of authoritarian methods of rule.

Earlier, Erdogan raised the issue of buying American fighter jets on the sidelines of the July 11 summit during a meeting with US President Joe Biden. The latter promised to overcome congressional resistance to the deal. On the same day, Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan announced that Washington would proceed with the implementation of the F-16 fighter agreement after consulting with US parliamentarians.

According to the Flightglobal portal, we can talk about the sale to the Turkish armed forces of 40 vehicles of the latest modification of the F-16V and kits for the modernization of 79 Turkish F-16C, previously assembled in Turkey. In addition, according to Middle East Eye, the deal also includes the purchase of more than 900 air-to-air missiles and 800 bombs. The US supply package is estimated at about $20 billion.

Ankara first requested the purchase of American equipment in October 2021. But after Turkey was excluded from the US fifth-generation F-35 fighter supply program due to Ankara’s purchase of Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems, Congress, under various pretexts, also prevents sales of fourth-generation fighters to the Turkish Air Force F-16 and modernization of these machines. In total, according to Cirium, Turkey has currently received or assembled under license 243 F-16s, of which 157 units are operated by the Air Force.

In addition, according to Middle East Eye sources, one of the conditions for Ankara’s approval of Sweden’s application for NATO membership was the lifting of Canada’s arms embargo on Turkey. Ottawa imposed a ban on the sale of weapons to the country immediately after the Turkish armed forces launched an invasion of northern Syria in 2019. A year later, it partially abandoned this decision and approved the supply of electro-optical systems for Turkish Bayraktar TB-2 drones. But with the outbreak of the second Karabakh war in the fall of 2020, in which Ankara supported Azerbaijan, the Canadians again suspended the export of this key system for such drones.

The Biden administration will not have major problems implementing the F-16 decision. Congress will only declarative resistance, Vladimir Vasiliev, chief researcher at the Institute for the USA and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences, is sure. In his opinion, Washington wants to strengthen the southern flank of NATO, which is in Turkey’s interests.

“The Biden administration is being pragmatic, while the congress is more oriented towards public opinion, in which Erdogan is an authoritarian leader flirting with Moscow,” the expert said. “But given that the Senate is controlled by Democrats, Biden is unlikely to have any surprises pushing through the decision on fighter jets.” In the near future it will be possible to see new preferences for Ankara from Washington, continues Vasiliev. According to the expert, Turkey’s return to the F-35 program can be expected, as this is in line with the overall strategy of the White House to strengthen the alliance.

In addition, in the Lithuanian capital, Erdogan also touched upon the work of Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh. “In 2025, Russia will leave the territory [зону ответственности российского контингента]. I believe that Moscow will adhere to the agreement. My brother Ilham Aliyev is also closely following the situation in the region,” the Turkish President said.

Erdogan makes such statements because he understands that things are moving towards the conclusion of a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan, says Alexei Fenenko, associate professor of international security at the Faculty of World Politics at Moscow State University. If the agreement is signed before 2025, then the presence of Russian troops in the region, according to the expert, really loses its meaning. “Ankara’s attempts to increase its activity in the South Caucasus through support for Baku are obvious. So what Erdogan said fits into this dynamic. At the same time, Russia is unlikely to have a sharp reaction to this statement by the Turkish president, primarily because of the deteriorating relations with Yerevan,” the expert concluded.