Turkish president hopes for resumption of grain deal

Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that the revival of the Black Sea initiative for the export of Ukrainian grain depends on the fulfillment by Western countries of their promises to Russia. He said this on the evening of August 8 to Turkish diplomats at the 14th annual conference of Turkish ambassadors in Ankara. “I believe we can find a common denominator on this issue,” Erdogan said, referring to August 2 phone conversations with President Vladimir Putin. “The spread of the military conflict to the Black Sea will be a complete disaster for our entire region.”

According to Erdogan, during the period of the grain deal, the parties did not take any diplomatic steps to translate the “positive atmosphere” that arose as a result of the Black Sea initiative, first into a ceasefire, and then into permanent peace.

On July 17, Moscow refused to renew the grain deal with Kiev, concluded with the mediation of Ankara and UN representatives in July 2022. Putin argued this decision by the lack of progress in the implementation of the Russian part of the deal, which involves reconnecting Rosselkhozbank to the SWIFT payment system and resuming the operation of the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline. The President of the Russian Federation confirmed his readiness to resume Russia’s participation in the deal as soon as the West fulfills these conditions.

Last week, the conditions for the restoration of the Black Sea initiative were one of the main topics of telephone conversations between the leaders of Turkey and Russia. During the conversation, Erdogan stressed that the suspension of the agreement “will not benefit anyone” and promised to make efforts to renew it. In addition, the parties agreed to hold a face-to-face meeting in Ankara in the near future. On August 7, the Hurriyet newspaper, citing unnamed Turkish diplomats familiar with the situation, reported that the Russian president’s visit to the Turkish capital was scheduled for late August. Earlier, the press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov said that the date of such a trip has not been determined.

Due to Russia’s withdrawal from the grain deal, the Turkish flour-grinding industry, which works for export, has suffered, points out Iqbal Durre, associate professor of the theory of regional studies at the Moscow State Linguistic University. “If Turkey had not exported its products from grain, which it imports from Ukraine and Russia, then it would not have experienced problems – the country independently provides itself with grain for domestic needs,” the expert noted. At the same time, Erdogan’s interest in resuming the deal also has a political dimension, Durre continues. First, it is important for Ankara to maintain its role as the only leader capable of mediating the Ukrainian crisis. Such a unique role significantly raises her prestige, which helps Erdogan to restore relations with the West. Secondly, the expert continues, it is important for Erdogan to restore the former trusting relationship with Putin. “Erdogan’s statements that Russian demands are fair and that the restoration of the deal depends on the West also fit into this logic,” the expert said.

According to Aleksey Fenenko, Associate Professor of the Department of International Security at the Faculty of World Politics of Moscow State University, Ankara is encouraged by Moscow’s position on the Black Sea initiative, which leaves loopholes for its restoration. The Russian side announced its readiness to return to the deal subject to very specific conditions. That is why, Fenenko adds, Erdogan makes statements complimentary to Russia in order to resume negotiations. “Perhaps, in this situation, the West will even make some symbolic concessions, but whether it will be profitable and acceptable for us is a big question,” the expert concluded.