Turkey’s benefit from grain deal assessed

On October 31, a telephone conversation took place between Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Turkish counterpart Hulusi Akar. The central topic was the grain deal, the suspension of participation in which Moscow announced on October 29 after the terrorist attack in the waters of Sevastopol. Akar said in a conversation that the continuation of the deal is crucial, urging the Russian side to reconsider its decision.

“Russia’s decision to suspend the initiative to ship grain, which is a purely humanitarian activity that should be separated from conflict situations, should be reconsidered,” Akar Shoigu said.

Of great importance is the continuation of the grain initiative, which makes a great contribution to alleviating the global food crisis and shows that all problems can be solved through cooperation and dialogue, Hulusi Akar said.

Echoing an earlier statement by President Erdogan, the Turkish Defense Minister pledged that Ankara will continue to contribute to peace in the region and facilitate the availability of humanitarian aid.

Recall that Turkey, the UN, Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement on the resumption of grain exports from the Black Sea on July 22 in Istanbul. A Joint Coordinating Center was set up in Istanbul with officials from the three countries and the UN to oversee the deliveries.

Earlier, Erdogan said that Turkey will continue its efforts to find a solution to the global food crisis, as it has done so far, despite Russia’s withdrawal from the deal.

To understand the scale of transportation, it is worth looking at the numbers. Since August 1, 408 ships have transported more than 9.2 million tons of grain, including wheat, corn and barley, as part of the “grain deal”, according to the Turkish Ministry of National Defense.

It is clear that for such work in the current conditions, maximum efforts should be made. Turkey’s image as the main mediator between the conflicting parties has already proven itself, which made it possible for the country to become a participant in the grain deal. And of course, this mediation adds points to Erdogan personally, who, speaking in Ankara on Friday, October 28, at an event of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) with the extremely sonorous name “The Century of Turkey”, spoke about the increase in Turkey’s global influence. Here, Erdogan did not stint on the promise to make Turkey one of the 10 greatest states in the world: “With the help of our foreign policy, we have raised Turkey’s reputation to the highest level.”

And, of course, it is important for the Turkish leader to appear as a peacemaker. Erdogan has repeatedly expressed his desire to bring Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Vladimir Zelensky to the negotiating table in Turkey to end the conflict.

Perhaps the biggest breakthrough in the conflict came, according to Turkish news channel TRT World, when Turkey, along with the UN, struck a deal to open a grain corridor that helped lower food prices around the world.

Undoubtedly, the grain deal has become beneficial for Ankara in terms of image. But Turkish publications are cunning when they talk only about this. Why? Here we must go back a few months, as far as the beginning of June. Then Yeni Şafak wrote about negotiations on a future grain deal. The Minister of Agriculture and Forestry of Turkey Vahit Kirishchi assessed the prospects for such agreements. According to the official, Ankara is doing everything possible to unblock grain exports from Ukrainian ports. However, not free of charge.

Noting that negotiations with Kyiv are ongoing, Kirishchi said that there is an agreement with the Ukrainian side to reduce the cost of grain for the Turkish side by 25%: “An agreement has been reached with Ukraine on the purchase of grain with more than a 25% discount. However, they face a dilemma in terms of security and export of products and want Turkey to act as an arbiter in this process. Both Russia and Ukraine trust us,” the Yeni Şafak newspaper quoted the minister as saying.

By the way, already in July Yunus Kılıç, head of the commission on agriculture of the Turkish parliament, spoke about such a preference. The Sabah newspaper quoted the parliamentarian as saying that “the ministers of Russia and Ukraine verbally promised Turkey advantages in the issue of grain prices.”

“Of course, they (Russia and Ukraine) will themselves determine the countries of supply, their volumes and prices for grain. Turkey, according to the signed document, has assumed the role of the secretariat and in their trade with other countries will perform functions comparable to foreign missions,” Kılıç added then. According to the parliamentarian, thanks to the agreements, the Turkish side will also be able to purchase grain for its subsequent export.

And as the Daily Sabah pointed out, it should not be forgotten that Turkey is an important center for processing grain from the Black Sea region, and the Turkish food industry will also benefit from the normalization of trade as a result of the deal.

And yet it turns out that the image is in this regard in the first place. Considerations of economic benefit also take place, although not so obvious. But in this regard, the words of the Russian president sound significant when he said at a press conference on October 31 that although the process of exporting grain from the territory of Ukraine was organized under the pretext of ensuring the interests of the poorest countries, “in general, it looks like 34 percent of the grain goes to Turkey, 35, a little more – to the EU countries”, and “only 3-4. well, maybe 5 percent went to the poorest countries.”

MK spoke about the benefits of Turkey in the grain deal with Professor of Ankara University Togrul Ismail:

– If Turkey directly receives grain products in this transaction, then there is a profit. But mostly these ships pass through the straits.

There is no direct economic benefit for Turkey in this matter. Here, rather, it is not even about money, but about the image of the country as a mediator, a party that wants peace in the region. Naturally, there is also economic profit, but only if Turkey itself buys these products in Russia and Ukraine. There are serious agreements in this regard.

There is a discount if these countries themselves – Russia or Ukraine – do it themselves. But many grain products do not go directly to Turkey. Through the straits, grain is delivered to other countries. Turkey can profit only when these ships pass through the Turkish straits. Nothing else.

– The term of the transaction itself ends on November 19. What are its future prospects?

“The most important thing here is safety. The presence of warships in the Black Sea creates certain risks and Russia’s withdrawal from this deal, which also carries a certain risk. That is, merchant ships can collide with warships or come under fire. The danger lies precisely in this. There is a risk that the transaction itself may be suspended and never resumed. Turkey always tries to take into account the interests of the Russian side, Erdogan spoke about this more than once. Much depends on Russia. Turkey is only an intermediary in the matter. The main parties to the agreement are Ukraine and Russia.

– It turns out that for Turkey this is more of an image story?

– Yes, first of all – the image. The economic side is secondary, I think. Unless Turkey itself receives these products directly. Although, a lot of grain comes from Russia to our country. From Ukraine too, but the volume of deliveries from Russia is much larger, of course (In 2021, Turkey ranked first in imports of Russian agricultural products. In particular, Turkey received 6.7 million tons of wheat from Russia in 2021 for $1.8 billion – “MK”).

This is a very big deal. Compared to the receipts of products from Ukraine, Russia receives 4-5 times more. Turkey receives grains, fertilizers and so on from Russia. But here I will clarify that this is not only for internal use. Products are processed and re-exported back, including to Russia in the form of flour, pasta, and so on. That is, it is a mutually beneficial deal for both countries.

– And that is why Erdogan himself says that he will seek Russia’s return to the deal?

– Of course. I will say again that this is prestige, and secondly, we are also interested in the economic side of this issue. I think this deal is actually beneficial for Russia as well. It is clear that there are sanctions, but there should be no sanctions on grain and other products, since they are directly related to the human factor. These are basic foodstuffs, essential products. It is very important. Turkey is trying to do this, and the Turkish side always says that it is necessary to take into account in this issue that part of the agreements that was concluded with Russia too.