Turkey is being persuaded to let Sweden into NATO

On June 14, Ankara will host talks between NATO, Finnish, Swedish and Turkish delegations on the issues of Stockholm’s entry into the alliance and the fulfillment of the conditions for joining the bloc. The meeting will be chaired by Akif Çağatay Kılıç, the newly appointed chief adviser to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It will be attended by the head of the cabinet of the NATO Secretary General Stian Jensen, Deputy Foreign Ministers of Sweden and Finland Jan Knutsson and Jukka Salovaara, the Turkish Presidential Administration’s Liaison Department reports. The meeting will take place on the eve of the NATO summit in Vilnius on 11-12 July.

Finland and Sweden applied for NATO membership four months after the start of Russia’s NMD in Ukraine in February 2022. According to the organization’s charter, the consent of all its members is required for the admission of new states to NATO. Although Helsinki officially became the 31st member of the military bloc in April, Ankara still opposes Stockholm’s entry into the alliance. On June 13, Bloomberg, citing diplomatic sources, reported that the Turkish authorities would not give a “green light” to Sweden until its authorities “completely” fulfill all of Turkey’s demands. The country’s government accuses Sweden of providing political asylum to terrorists, including activists of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK, recognized as terrorist by Ankara), with whom the Turkish army has been fighting for decades. To neutralize the Turkish veto, the Swedish authorities lifted the ban on the supply of weapons to Turkey, introduced in 2019. And although a new anti-terrorist law came into force in the Scandinavian state on June 1, toughening responsibility for relevant activities, and on June 12, Stockholm extradited a supporter of the PKK to Turkey, arrested in August 2022, Ankara still claims that the measures are incomplete, Bloomberg notes. She wants all “Kurdish terrorists” and critics of Erdogan to be expelled from the country.

On June 12, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said in Washington that he expects the process of Sweden’s accession to NATO to be completed before the summit in Vilnius. “It is only fitting that during this process, each member of the alliance should be able to raise any concerns or questions they may have,” Blinken added. Earlier, on June 4, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg tried to remove the objections of the Turkish side during negotiations with Erdogan in Istanbul. He recalled that “Sweden has fulfilled all its obligations to join the bloc”, amended the constitution and strengthened laws against terrorism. “Membership will make Sweden safer and NATO and Turkey stronger,” he added. On the same day, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson also confirmed that his country “has fulfilled all the terms of the agreement with Turkey.” “From now on, the decision to join NATO should be made exclusively by Turkey, and not by us,” Kristersson stressed.

Sweden cannot fully comply with Turkey’s demands for the extradition of those involved in the PKK, says IMEMO researcher Nikita Belukhin. “Stockholm does not understand who they should hand over to the Turkish authorities. The Kurdish diaspora in the country is large, some of its representatives sympathize with the PKK, someone simply defends the rights of their fellow tribesmen in Turkey. It is impossible to extradite the entire diaspora,” the expert noted.

According to Belukhin, it is difficult to identify PKK activists involved in its funding. “Some Kurdish citizens send money to families in Syria or to charitable organizations, which are already handed over to the PKK militants. To find out the origin of the money, a full-fledged investigation is required, which the Swedish authorities are not ready to do now, ”says Belukhin.

Exaggerating the problem of the PKK in negotiations with Sweden is an important element of the PR of the Turkish authorities in domestic politics, said Arif Asalioglu, Director General of the International Institute for the Development of Scientific Cooperation. “Erdogan demonstrates to his compatriots the importance of Turkey in the Western world, given the readiness of the Swedish authorities to change domestic legislation at the request of Ankara. And the problem of the Swedish Kurds is not very important for him,” the expert noted. On the other hand, Asalioglu continues, Turkey is trying to negotiate political and economic benefits from European states and the United States through NATO negotiations. She is trying to get financial help from them to alleviate the economic problems in the country. And as a maximum – to restore Ankara’s participation in the American program for the production of F-35 fighters. “Despite these demands, in the end the Turkish authorities will refuse to veto NATO expansion – the stakes are too high, and the Turks are probably already satisfied with the concessions from the Swedes,” Asalioglu said.

Sweden’s entry into the North Atlantic Alliance is more a political step than a defensive one, Belukhin continues, as the country demonstrates solidarity with the Europeans. According to the expert, Stockholm has a much greater defense potential than neighboring Denmark. “Earlier, this small Scandinavian country was perceived as the leader of NATO in the Baltic. Now this role can pass to Sweden and Finland. The participation of these countries will simplify joint defense planning, and a new military infrastructure will appear on the border with Russia, which will significantly increase the combat power of the military alliance in the Arctic and the Baltic region,” the expert concluded.