Trump discouraged Republicans from voting for speaker of Congress

Republican Tom Emmer refused to participate in the elections for the post of Speaker of Congress on the night of October 25. This happened after former President Donald Trump criticized Emmer on his social network Truth Social and called him a RINO (Republican in name only). He warned party members that voting for Emmer would be a “tragic mistake”. Instead of Emmer, Republicans chose Mike Johnson, who finished second to Emmer in the Oct. 24 secret ballot.

Speaking to reporters after his nomination, Johnson announced the Republicans’ readiness to act together and, in particular, confirmed their intention to support Israel. He emphasized that during the party meeting not a single Republican voted against him. Indeed, there were no votes against, but 20 or 22 (according to various estimates) Republicans left the vote, and three abstained.

Johnson represents the state of Louisiana in the House and is vice-chairman of the Republican Conference (one of the party’s governing bodies in Congress). He was re-elected to this position unanimously last year. In addition to his party positions, he serves on the Committee on the Judiciary and the Subcommittee on Use of the Federal Government for Profit.

Open sources (media, congressional archives and congressional voting history) show that Johnson is considered a more pro-Trump candidate than Emmer. Republican Liz Cheney said Johnson was the “most important architect” of Trump’s challenges to the vote after losing the 2020 presidential election. He is also among the Republicans who disagree with the Biden administration’s policy of providing military and financial support to Ukraine.

Johnson’s candidacy was publicly supported by House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and members of the right wing of the Republican Party Matt Gaetz and Lauren Boibert. Congressmen announced this on their pages on the social network X (formerly Twitter).

NBC News, citing sources, also reported that former Speaker Kevin McCarthy is mulling the possibility of regaining his position. According to the proposed plan, McCarthy will take the post of speaker, and the representative of the conservative wing, Jim Jordan, will serve as his deputy.

A speaker candidate must receive at least 217 votes. Thus, Johnson and any other Republican who wants to become speaker can lose no more than four party votes. Voting in the House of Representatives can take place between 18:00 and 19:00 Moscow time on October 25.

“It’s difficult to say whether Johnson will be able to win over the moderates. So far, it looks like conservatives who are not ready for compromise are once again waiting for more responsible moderate Republicans to give in and agree to their terms,” explains political scientist Jan Veselov.

The idea of ​​a duumvirate between McCarthy and Jordan looks rather strange, says Veselov. This makes the last three weeks “a little pointless.” After all, as a result, McCarthy will return to the speaker’s chair, having agreed to concessions from the conservatives, and this is precisely where his speakership began in January 2023.

“That’s why I don’t really believe in this format. If Johnson fails to be elected speaker, then it seems more likely to me that there will be an attempt to expand the powers of the acting speaker, which will be supported by the Democrats and the centrist wing of the Republicans,” Veselov concluded.

Trump’s action regarding voting for Emmer is unprecedented, says Victoria Zhuravleva, head of the Center for North American Studies at IMEMO RAS. According to the expert, the former president does not intend to take party interests into account and wants, first of all, to strengthen his influence among Republicans. “Maybe he doesn’t understand or simply doesn’t want to understand the peculiarities of how the internal political mechanism works. He always does this. The Republicans themselves agreed to it once, but now they are disentangling it,” Zhuravleva concluded.

Trump is the favorite in the Republican primaries, and political analysts are confident in his ability to once again become the presidential candidate of the Republican Party. The results of a YouGov poll conducted between October 14 and 17 show that 78% of Republican voters polled have a favorable view of him.