Trading with two well-known ones – Newspaper Kommersant No. 202 (7403) dated 10/31/2022

Analysts from the Institute for Emerging Economies of the Bank of Finland published their estimates of Russia’s foreign trade in August 2022 based on mirror statistics of the countries that are the country’s main trading partners. Like other analysts (see Kommersant on October 20), economists at the institute note that the value of Russian exports began to decline after rising in the spring against the background of high world prices for raw materials, months of transition periods preceding the imposition of sanctions, and Moscow’s success looking for alternative export markets, especially in Asia. Despite the decrease, according to the center’s analysts, the value of Russian exports in August was approximately at the level of months before the outbreak of hostilities. However, in terms of countries, the dynamics and structure of exports have changed markedly. The value of exports to the EU in August fell by about 20% compared to pre-conflict levels in Ukraine. In August-September, the value of exports to India, on the contrary, increased five to six times, and to China – by 50% compared with the same period.

After last spring’s failure, imports recovered steadily from May to August (see chart). The value of imports from the Russian Federation fell by about 30% in August, while those from the EU fell by about 50% compared to the last months before the conflict. Russian imports also decreased from countries not participating in the sanctions. For example, the import of goods from Thailand in August decreased by 35%, and from Vietnam – by 60%. Russia’s imports from China have recovered to pre-conflict levels, while those from Turkey have doubled over the same period, the authors of seasonally adjusted estimates note.

Recall, on October 24, the head of the Federal Customs Service, Ruslan Davydov, confirmed a noticeable slowdown in the annual rate of decline in imports in January-September 2022 to 15-16% against 30% in April. Customs statistics also confirm other trends that record mirror data: over three quarters, the trade turnover between Russia and China increased by about 30%, and Turkey “sharply broke into second place,” said Mr. Davydov. The share of the EU in trade turnover continues to decline – to 35% from 54%. The decline in the cost of exports and the recovery of imports will continue to reduce export earnings, and the ruble may begin to drift towards 65 rubles by the end of the year. for $1, says Dmitry Polevoy from Lokoinvest.

Artem Chugunov