Trade will find a hole – Newspaper Kommersant No. 157 (7358) of 08/29/2022

A detailed study of the July results of industrial production by CMASF analysts reveals a remarkable fact indicating a likely shift in the supply of imported components to the Russian Federation. Their growth, according to economists of the center, slowed down the decline in the production of machinery and equipment from February 2022 (by 3-4% per month): in July, the rate of decline in their production is estimated at only 0.9%. “However, the July relative positive is associated with a jump in the production of material handling equipment. At the same time, for most other types of equipment, the decline is still ongoing,” the center notes.

Nevertheless, along with the growth of oil refining volumes, as well as production in metallurgy and chemistry, the slowdown in the decline in the production of machinery and equipment caused the analysts of the center, as well as Rosstat (see Kommersant of August 24), to record a “trend reversal” in the industrial production (minus “secret positions” to remove the impact on the output of the military-industrial complex). The most vigorous recovery in output is demonstrated by the automotive industry (primarily passenger cars): an increase compared to the previous month by 1.7 times in July and 1.5 times in June. “This growth came from almost zero, so the current level is four times less than in February. The recovery is based on a partial solution to the problem of imported components in parallel with the simplification of the assortment,” the center’s analysts specify. In terms of trucks, the situation is much better (in July – 58% compared to February, so the recovery growth is weaker: plus 8.6% against the previous month in July after 4% in June).

At the same time, although on an annualized basis, the scale of the decline in industrial production, cleared of the influence of the military-industrial complex, is more tangible (according to Rosstat, output was 4.2% higher in July, and 1.4% lower than the average monthly the trend is still visible: by the previous month, the output rates became positive (1.1% in July after minus 0.3% in June and minus 1.2% in May).

The beginning of the restoration of the import of intermediate foreign goods into the Russian Federation is recorded by mirror data, not only due to semi-legal schemes of parallel imports through Belarus, Turkey and Kyrgyzstan, the supply of which has been growing by tens of percent in recent months (see Kommersant of August 16). In June, the export of industrial equipment from the EU countries also exceeded the mark of €1.1 billion, although in May it was about €900 million, according to Eurostat. The strengthening of the ruble and the growing certainty of which goods can be supplied from the EU are likely to explain the growth in investment activity of small and medium-sized businesses that surprised analysts earlier, recorded by the RSBI index (see Kommersant of August 16).