Those wishing to purchase housing will be offered a new product: what are the disadvantages

“The new financial instrument is no better than a regular deposit”

Intending to increase the affordability of housing for Russians, the state came up with a new type of savings instrument – a housing savings agreement (HSA). We are talking about a bank deposit with a validity period of more than a year, the funds from which can be used exclusively for the purchase of real estate. Independent experts note that the new deposit makes sense only if the interest rate on it is increased.

The corresponding bill was approved by the Duma Committee on the Financial Market, headed by Anatoly Aksakov (he is also one of the authors). The measure does not provide for direct support for depositors from the federal budget or regional budgets, that is, co-financing of the deposit. The amount of interest rates on mortgage loans is determined by the bank itself; interest is accrued annually and paid at the end of the contract. Thus, the key point remains unclear: how will these rates differ from the usual market average, will they attract people? The bill also establishes an increased maximum amount of insurance compensation for the contribution of a housing savings agreement – 10 million rubles.

The main stumbling block for those wishing to acquire their own square meters is often the unaffordable amount of the down payment for the purchase of apartments with a mortgage. According to the authors, the residential housing complex should help solve the problem, and in a broader sense, create pent-up demand for real estate, the market of which is close to collapse due to completely insane prices. As of today, 71.1 million square meters of housing (67% of the market) have not been sold in new buildings – 5.4 million more than in 2023.

“The initiative has the right to exist, but how much it will be in demand by the population is a big question,” says Polina Gusyatnikova, senior managing partner of the law firm PG Partners. – In essence, citizens will receive the same bank deposit, only with an additional restriction – the funds can only be spent on purchasing housing. There is only one undeniable plus – the amount of insurance coverage is 10 million rubles, and not the generally accepted 1.4 million.”

The very prospect of saving up for housing using a bank deposit looks dubious: prices per square meters are growing very quickly (in the capital since 2019 – by an average of 40-70%), and the interest simply will not cover them. The yield on deposits depends on the key rate, which will not be proportional to price dynamics. Accordingly, there is no point in investing money in housing insurance now. According to Gusyatnikova, a mortgage in this regard looks more attractive, since it allows you to fix the value of the property and refinance the loan in the future if rates drop.

After the down payment on a preferential mortgage with a rate of 8% for all citizens increased to 30% in December 2023, the demand for mortgages fell sharply. To spur it on, people need to be offered some kind of “carrot”. In any case, JS deposits should have a higher return than regular ones, argues Alexei Zubets, a professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. Relatively speaking, the deposit rate is set not at 16%, but at 20%, while a person does not have the right to withdraw the entire amount earlier than after 10 years. As a result, the money is tied up in a deposit, the state receives long-term investment resources, citizens receive an increased interest rate, and developers receive new clients who are guaranteed to buy housing. But since the details of the mechanism are not yet known, it is unclear how it will work in practice. As for the option of 10 million rubles of insurance compensation, it is insignificant: not a single large bank has “burst” in Russia in recent years, and the risks are zero. People want returns that beat inflation, that’s all that matters.

“I don’t see any particular differences between a private equity loan and a regular bank deposit,” says Zubets. – There are no risks here, but there are no obvious advantages either. Banks hardly need this. After all, the question arises: who will cover the difference for them, who will “pay for the banquet” in the event of increased rates on housing insurance: the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank or developers?”

This case from the investor’s point of view is absolutely useless, real estate market expert, author of the Economism project Alexey Krichevsky is categorical. Firstly, money can only be used to purchase housing, that is, a person will not be able to use his own funds to the fullest. Secondly, there is no capitalization of interest – all income is paid upon expiration. Thirdly, additional conditions are unknown: the bank has the right to build relationships in such a way that a mortgage upon purchase and payment of the first installment can be taken only where the deposit was opened.

“Accordingly, there are quite a lot of options that the bank can prescribe in the agreement, and which will sharply worsen the position of depositors,” sums up Krichevsky. – De facto, the instrument is no better than a regular deposit. It is intended only for extremely financially undisciplined people.”