They wanted to collect 250 billion rubles from citizens for old age: experts doubted the reality of the plans

“The long-term savings program will not become widespread”

At least 250 billion rubles – this is how much, according to the instructions of President Vladimir Putin, the state plans to attract citizens only in the first year of the long-term savings program (LTS). The announced amount raises questions among independent experts: where will the money come from if the project does not ultimately become truly massive and popular? This probability is too great: if anyone takes part in the PDS, it will be people with a salary much higher than the statistical average of 64 thousand rubles. That is, no more than 2 million in the country as a whole.

Meanwhile, officials, inspired by the president’s instructions, are rushing to make loud statements. According to the assessment of the first deputy chairman of the Central Bank, Vladimir Chistyukhin, by 2030, the PDS (started in January 2024) will involve funds from at least 9 million Russians with a total volume of over 1.2 trillion rubles. “We believe,” said Chistyukhin, “that non-state pension funds (NPFs) will be able to offer their clients understandable, transparent and, no less important, conservative strategies that will bring a large number of long-term savings program participants to the market.”

Faith is wonderful, but there is also the prose of life. There is a theory, and there is established experience, which in Russia often do not intersect. Let us remind you that PDS is a voluntary savings and savings product for citizens with co-financing from the state. You can start saving at any age (from 18 years old), including in favor of a third party. To do this, it is necessary to conclude an agreement with a non-state pension fund: the fund is assigned the role of program operator, investing citizens’ investments in federal loan bonds (OFZ) and other securities. The entry fee is determined by the person independently, its amount is not limited, and the frequency of replenishment of the account is determined by the contract. Two types of payments are available: lifetime and term, assigned for a period of at least ten years. Savings can be used (including withdrawn in full) after 15 years of participation in the program upon reaching the age of 55 years for women and 60 years for men.

The current project is a kind of reincarnation of the state program for co-financing pension savings, which operated in Russia from October 2008 to the end of 2014. Citizens registered in the OPS system could participate in it and for ten years transfer 2-12 thousand rubles a year for pensions, and the state doubled contributions. The new program is larger and more ambitious: in particular, for three years after entry into it, the maximum amount of state co-financing is 36 thousand rubles per year. In addition, a person can count on a special tax deduction – up to 52 thousand rubles annually when paying contributions up to 400 thousand rubles. The key problem: you shouldn’t expect mass participation.

“The program is designed mainly for people whose monthly income exceeds 100 thousand rubles, plus they have free money,” says Alexander Safonov, a professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. – But will they want to participate? At the current level of inflation, there are more attractive investment instruments on the market: for example, on the dynamics of shares you can earn both 25% and 50% per annum. And spraying funds over a distance of 15 years is a dubious undertaking.”

It is important that, unlike the previous program, the amount of co-financing will be determined not only by the amount of contributions paid, but also by the amount of average monthly income. For persons with income over 80 thousand, the yield is reduced to 50%, and for persons with income above 150 thousand – to 25%. Moreover, we are talking about a time period of only three years. And then (without state co-financing), according to Safonov, people will lose money: in recent years, non-state pension funds have shown negative returns relative to the inflation rate. As MK’s interlocutor reminds, if some categories of Russians have previously made long-term (and voluntary) investments in non-state pension funds, then, as a rule, it was within the framework of corporate pension programs.

“We have an extremely narrow circle of households that might be interested in this idea,” notes Pavel Kudyukin, a member of the Council of the Confederation of Labor of Russia. – Of course, over the past year, nominal monetary incomes have increased quite significantly, and even real ones for certain groups of the population. But now it is very difficult to say how many people need to be involved in the program, and how much they should pay, so that the total amount is 250 billion rubles. Especially within one year, 2024. The problem is not even in the numbers: the majority of Russians do not believe in state guarantees, in the obviously changeable rules of the game from the state, in the bright future of voluntary savings. Citizens are more accustomed to using proven investment instruments, such as bank deposits and real estate purchases.”