There are no plans for gubernatorial resignations in Russia before the 2024 presidential elections.

Last week marked five years since a major rotation in the gubernatorial corps, within which new heads of St. Petersburg, Bashkiria and a number of other regions were appointed. And although most governors, whose powers expire in less than a year, are in no hurry to talk about their claims for a new term, Kommersant’s sources say that at least until the presidential elections in March 2024, all leaders will most likely remain in their positions.

On October 11, the governor of the Kursk region, Roman Starovoyt, and the head of Bashkiria, Radiy Khabirov, celebrated their fifth anniversary in their posts. Both were appointed acting duties on this day in 2018: Mr. Starovoit replaced the long-time governor of the region, Alexander Mikhailov, and Mr. Khabirov replaced the last president of the republic, Rustem Khamitov (the position was abolished in 2015). A year later, both were successfully elected in direct elections; their powers expire next fall.

In honor of the anniversary, the Kursk governor prepared a report on the main achievements of his first five-year plan, and presented it to officials, deputies and social activists of the region in the concert hall of the local philharmonic. Roman Starovoit emphasized that the event is not formally regulated in any way: this is his personal initiative, since five years is an “important cutoff.” He also said that after this period, he realized the “sense of foresight” of President Vladimir Putin, who sent the then deputy minister of transport to lead his native region, explaining that he was “more needed” there.

Radiy Khabirov, in turn, summed up the results of the first five-year plan at a solemn meeting dedicated to Republic Day (celebrated on October 11 in honor of the declaration of sovereignty of Bashkiria, adopted in 1990). He listed the main economic achievements of the region, and also touched upon preparations for the 450th anniversary of Ufa next year. Mr. Khabirov said that the past five years have become the “happiest” in his life, since “in this difficult time for the republic” he was with his people, and also promised to put “all his strength and energy” into the prosperity of Bashkiria.

Despite the plans expressed, neither Roman Starovoyt nor Radiy Khabirov directly spoke about their intention to extend their powers. “We have ambitious goals for the development of the region, long-term plans, and I am confident that we will cope with these tasks,” Mr. Starovoyt told Kommersant. “But it’s too early to think about the gubernatorial elections; first, we, like the whole country, have the presidential election campaign on the agenda.” The press service of the head of Bashkiria did not answer Kommersant’s question whether Radiy Khabirov intends to run for a second term. An interlocutor close to his administration told Kommersant that there has not yet been a “go-ahead” from Moscow on this matter.

Let us remind you that, together with the Kursk and Bashkir leaders, in the fall of 2018, the mayor of St. Petersburg Alexander Beglov, the governors of the Kurgan and Lipetsk regions Vadim Shumkov and Igor Artamonov, as well as the head of the Trans-Baikal Territory Alexander Osipov were appointed as acting. In December of the same year, the head of the Sakhalin region Valery Limarenko joined the cohort of “newcomers”, and as part of the spring rotation 2019 – the governors of the Chelyabinsk, Orenburg and Murmansk regions Alexey Teksler, Denis Pasler and Andrey Chibis, the heads of Altai and Kalmykia Oleg Khorokhordin and Batu Khasikov . Finally, in the summer of 2019, Igor Babushkin was appointed governor of the Astrakhan region. Each of them will either run for a second term next fall or resign.

The powers of three “veterans” of the governor’s corps are also expiring – the Stavropol leader Vladimir Vladimirov, the Volgograd Andrei Bocharov and the Vologda Oleg Kuvshinnikov. Messrs. Vladimirov and Bocharov are finishing their second term, and Mr. Kuvshinnikov is actually serving his third (he was first confirmed in office by the regional legislative assembly on the recommendation of Dmitry Medvedev in 2011).

Let us note that since the beginning of the special operation in Ukraine, rotations of regional leaders have become noticeably less frequent. Thus, last year, for the first time in five years, the traditional autumn “governor’s fall” did not occur. It looks like there won’t be one this year either. Three Kommersant sources close to the presidential administration say that they have not heard about the preparation of resignations before the start of the 2024 presidential campaign (it should officially start in mid-December). “Those replacements that needed to be carried out on the eve of the presidential elections have most likely already been carried out. Unless some extraordinary cases occur, then most likely there will be no new replacements before the elections,” says one of Kommersant’s interlocutors. Another explains that introducing a new person to the region on the eve of the presidential elections is also a risk: the acting governor in this case may not have time to understand the situation before the federal campaign. “It seems like there are no ‘sins’ behind anyone,” adds another source. At the same time, Kommersant’s interlocutors do not rule out that resignations may still occur in the event of major mistakes by regional heads or related scandals.

Most governors, like Roman Starovoit, prefer not to discuss next September for now. The press services of Alexander Beglov, Vadim Shumkov, Igor Artamonov, Oleg Khorokhordin and Denis Pasler did not answer Kommersant’s questions. The press service of Alexander Osipov advised him to inquire about this in “two or three months.” Kommersant’s sources in the government of Transbaikalia say that preparations for the gubernatorial elections are not yet underway.

Vladimir Vladimirov also did not answer Kommersant’s questions, and his press service explained that it was premature to talk about future elections: if the head of the region decides to run for a third term, he will announce it himself – and when he deems it necessary. Kommersant’s sources in the regional government believe that Mr. Vladimirov will remain in office.

Kommersant’s interlocutor, surrounded by Andrei Bocharov, has no doubts about the third term either: “If there were any attempts at demolition, everyone would already know.” And an informed interlocutor of Kommersant from the leadership of the Volgograd cell of United Russia adds that “Bocharov has the opportunity to go into the first office and resolve all issues.” Mr. Bocharov will retain his post, “unless he finds a better place and leaves the region of his own free will, which has not yet been heard,” the source believes.

However, among the governors there are also those who have already expressed their intention to be elected for a new term. For example, during a direct line with residents of the region at the end of December 2022, Alexey Texler firmly stated that he “has a lot of plans” and is ready to run for a second term. Andrei Chibis made a similar statement at the end of 2021 in an interview with TASS, and a year later repeated it at a press conference. “With the support of the president and residents, I am ready to run for a second term,” Mr. Chibis confirmed to Kommersant that his plans are unchanged.

Andrey Prah, Andrey Vinokurov; corset “Kommersant”