The WTO ministerial conference in Abu Dhabi ended without clear results

The WTO Ministerial Conference in Abu Dhabi (MC13) ended without clear results – the participants were able to agree on a common declaration, but did not reach agreement on any of the most controversial points. Reform of the dispute resolution mechanism has been postponed until at least the end of this year (in connection with the elections in the United States), but in other agreements, an obstacle was the unwillingness to reduce the volume of support for domestic producers, this, in particular, prevented the completion of negotiations on fishing subsidies – which WTO participants increasingly value the possibility of applying protective measures in their own markets.

The 13th Ministerial Conference of the WTO ended in Abu Dhabi – this is the highest governing body of the organization, in which the ministers of trade of all member countries participate. As a result of the negotiations, which lasted until two o’clock in the morning from Friday to Saturday (the conference was expected to close on Thursday), a ministerial declaration was adopted – given significant disagreements, its approval could be in question (the declaration was not adopted after the conference in Buenos Aires in 2017 year, negotiations in Geneva in June 2022, on the contrary, ended more successfully than expected).

In the document, the organization pledges to “preserve and strengthen” the international trading system with the WTO at its center, maintaining “robust and diversified” supply chains to respond to “current global challenges.” The development agenda, as specifically stated in the document, should occupy a central place in the WTO (we are, however, talking about the organization’s support for the development of poor and lagging countries). In practice, WTO members largely remained in their positions after complex approvals: by Wednesday evening, when ministers were supposed to approve the main provisions, only three paragraphs of the declaration were ready.

On the main issue of WTO reform, the declaration stated the intention to “continue to work on outstanding issues, including issues of appeal and accessibility of the mechanism, and achieve this year the goal set at the previous conference in Geneva.” None of the conference participants interviewed by Kommersant expressed expectations that negotiations would be completed at least before the presidential elections in the United States. Let us remind you that the WTO appellate body is not working due to a shortage of judges (their appointment was blocked by the American side – the decision of the appellate body cannot be obtained since the end of 2019). An alternative mechanism, the launch of which was initiated by the European Union (the Russian Federation did not join it), also allows for retaliatory measures to be taken against the party that lost the dispute, but the choice of this mechanism in each case must be confirmed by both parties. The Russian Federation, like other countries, also cannot enforce several claims won at the WTO due to the EU’s appeal to the appellate body.

According to Kommersant’s interlocutors familiar with the course of discussions, various scenarios are being considered during closed sessions, up to the abolition of the second stage of arbitration or significant limitation of the powers of arbitrators (including with regard to the consideration of claims regarding protective measures introduced with reference to on national security – this is what makes it possible to increase tariffs above agreed levels, as well as introduce embargoes and other types of sanctions), but these proposals do not find support, so participants are engaged in facilitating dispute procedures (as a rule, they are accompanied by significant costs for the preparation of documentation and legal support – for small countries this is too high a cost).

A third of the points in the declaration are devoted to supporting the least developed countries – in fact, this is the only area in which countries were able to reach consensus. We are talking about extending preferences, as well as facilitating exit from the category of least developed countries through a three-year transition period (now this process is associated with the loss of some benefits and preferences for access to foreign markets). In addition, countries have extended the moratorium on the application of customs duties on e-commerce until March 31, 2026 (or the next ministerial conference). A multilateral agreement on investment facilitation was also concluded at the conference: 123 out of 166 WTO members signed it, but formally it does not belong to the organization’s agenda.

On the two most pressing items on the agenda – the program for future negotiations in the agricultural sector and fishing subsidies – the countries were unable to reach a consensus, said the head of the Ministry of Economy, Maxim Reshetnikov. “There is a text on fishing subsidies to a high degree of readiness, on agriculture, despite the fact that all the problems are long-standing, the approaches to solving them are so polar that points of contact are not yet visible,” he added. The first agreement on fishing subsidies, we recall, was adopted at the previous conference in Geneva, it was approved by 71 countries.

“The Russian side managed to maintain the possibility of using subsidies for fishing in distant seas – the participants agreed with this position. But it was not possible to agree on the final text, since some developing countries considered the volume of benefits retained for them insufficient,” Ekaterina Mayorova, director of the trade negotiations department of the Ministry of Economy, explained to Kommersant. In agriculture, the main obstacle remains India’s position on purchases into state reserves – this helps support farmers, but limits the possibilities for supplies to other countries. The issue has not been resolved for 20 years, and on the eve of the parliamentary elections, the country’s position in the WTO negotiations has become even more cautious.

Another fork in the road is the inclusion of climate regulation issues in the trade agenda, on which the positions of the EU countries and Russia diverge (Russian companies are expected to become one of the main payers of the border tax – CBAM). “We insisted on balancing formulations that would not allow such mechanisms to be “legalized”—this point caused serious disagreement,” adds Ekaterina Mayorova. The conference also discussed initiatives to reduce plastic pollution and reduce fuel subsidies, but the final text of the declaration refers only to the role “that international trade can play in achieving sustainable development goals in three dimensions – economic, social and environmental.”

“The ministers maintained the positive dynamics of WTO regulatory development in the areas of e-commerce, services and investment. The decision on their full integration into the organization’s legal system, however, has been postponed,” notes Maxim Medvedkov, adviser to the Center for Expertise on WTO Issues. These and other fundamentally important issues related to new disciplines in the field of agricultural production and trade, “fish” subsidies and even the creation of a platform for discussing industrial subsidies, the ministers instructed their teams in Geneva to resolve, some this year, some in 2025-2026 years. This work will not begin from the beginning – the views and ambitions of the negotiators are well known, there will even be draft texts of the agreements with which the ministers worked. “Another credit of trust has been granted, but it is unlikely to last forever,” the expert notes.

Tatiana Edovina, Abu Dhabi