The World Bank predicts a threefold increase in freight traffic along the Trans-Caspian route by 2031

The volume of freight traffic along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR, another name is the “Middle Corridor”) could triple by 2030, to 11 million tons, the World Bank predicts. The significance of the TMTM, which runs through China, Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey and Europe, is only growing after the start of the Russian military operation in Ukraine (see chart). The increased load on the route allowed World Bank analysts to identify its bottlenecks: it is assumed that their elimination will allow the corridor to become a key one in logistics between China and the EU.

Among the Middle Corridor problems described in the new report is a shortage of equipment to maintain smooth port operations. We are talking mainly about Aktau, which, according to the World Bank, does not function on windy days. However, infrastructural difficulties (including insufficient capacity on some sections of the route) seem to analysts less serious than the systemic “administrative” problems of the route. The fact is that the countries through which the TMK runs use information systems that are not integrated with each other, which creates difficulties in transmitting information about transportation by trade participants – it is completely impossible to track the location of goods in real time in such conditions. Investments in infrastructure without digitalization of operations and simplification of customs procedures may turn out to be meaningless, the World Bank states. It is with “administrative” difficulties that analysts attribute the decrease in the volume of container traffic along the corridor in the first eight months of 2023: compared to the same period in 2022, according to preliminary data, it decreased by 37%.

Although the development of TMTM is usually considered mainly in the context of strengthening trade ties between China and the EU, the WB calls for talking about this process as the most important for the diversification of supplies to the world market from Azerbaijan, Georgia and Kazakhstan. Let us recall that the latter was more actively involved than others in the work to strengthen the corridor – Astana’s interest is explained by the desire to reduce dependence on the Russian-controlled Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC): most of the oil exports now pass through it (see “Kommersant” dated November 1, 2022 And June 6).

Kristina Borovikova