The White House in the new forecast reduced the expected US budget deficit
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The administration of the American president revised down the projected budget deficit for fiscal year 2022 to $1.032 trillion. This is $383 billion less than forecast in March, Reuters and AP report, citing the document. The White House also predicts real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2022 at 1.4% against 3.8% in the March forecast. The budget review reflects revenue increases, modest spending cuts, and some technical re-evaluations of health spending.
The review was also impacted by the Consolidated Appropriations Act and a $30 billion incremental spending bill on Ukraine. The new forecast, completed on June 9, does not include the $52 billion semiconductor and research subsidy law, as well as the $430 billion package. including tax increases, investments in healthcare and clean energy.
According to the new forecast, it is expected that:
- the US consumer price index will increase by 6.6% in 2022, by 2.8% in 2023, by 2.3% in 2024;
- real US GDP growth will be 1.4% in 2022, 1.8% in 2023, 2.0% in 2024;
- the three-month rate on treasury bills will average 1.6% in 2022, 3.0% in 2023, 2.9% in 2024;
- 10-year Treasuries will average 2.7% in 2022, 3.2% in 2023, 3.2% in 2024;
- The US unemployment rate will average 3.7% in 2022, 3.7% in 2023, and 3.8% in 2024.
The White House forecasts consumer price inflation in the fourth quarter of 2022 at 6.6% versus 2.9% in the March budget forecast.
In early August, annual inflation in the US amounted to 8.5%, falling below analysts’ expectations by 0.2 percentage points. In June, inflation in annual terms was 9.1% – it slowed down for the first time since April. Against the background of these data, US President Joe Biden signed the bill “On reducing inflation-2022”.
Read more in the publication “Kommersant” “Joe Biden signed for November”.
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