The West failed to persuade BRICS to support Ukraine’s position

On June 24, a multilateral meeting on Ukraine was held in Copenhagen with the participation of political and national security advisers from both Western countries and representatives of the BRICS countries with the exception of Russia (Brazil, South Africa, India and China), the German TV channel ARD and radio station Deutschlandfunk reported. It is noted that the negotiations were held “in conditions of the strictest secrecy.” The fact that such a meeting is being prepared, moreover, at the initiative of Kyiv, was previously written with reference to Bloomberg and Reuters sources.

A post following the meeting in his Telegram channel was written by the head of the office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak. He noted that the Ukrainian delegation consisted of a team from the office of the president and the Foreign Ministry, and the meeting was attended by representatives of Brazil, Great Britain, Denmark, the European Union, Italy, India, Canada, Germany, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, the United States, Turkey, Ukraine, France and Japan. Reuters wrote that US national security adviser Jake Sullivan was expected to participate in the talks, but he is missing from the photo of the Ukrainian representative.

At the same time, the administration of the President of South Africa on June 26 did not confirm to TASS the country’s participation in the negotiations in Copenhagen, saying that it “knows nothing” about such an event. Yermak and Deutschlandfunk did not mention the participation of Chinese representatives, but ARD has other data.

According to Yermak, the Ukrainians once again spoke about the details of the “peace formula” of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. It was announced by him at the beginning of November 2022 at the G20 summit, among its points are the restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine within the 1991 borders, the withdrawal of Russian troops from new territories and Crimea, fixing the end of the conflict, as well as ensuring food, energy and nuclear security. Brazil and developing countries do not support Zelensky’s “peace formula”, TASS reports, citing a source in the Brazilian presidential administration. In addition, the four BRICS countries called for the Russian side to be involved in further negotiations.

The negotiators agreed only that such a format of communication is a good platform for further work and elaboration of the issue of holding a global “peace summit”, which Ukraine proposes to hold on its territory. The Wall Street Journal wrote on May 31 that it could take place after the NATO leaders’ summit in Lithuania starting on July 11. Russia’s participation in it is not envisaged, but Europe expects to attract the participation of China, India and Brazil.

ARD writes that the Western goal in Copenhagen was to enlist the support of the countries of the BRICS club (which includes Russia), which still remain neutral in relation to the Ukrainian conflict. “This event is seen as an important step towards peace talks. According to the ARD studio in Brussels, formal negotiations could take place as early as July.

The date of the meeting in Copenhagen coincided with the active part of the armed rebellion in Russia of the private military company Wagner, headed by Yevgeny Prigozhin. Already on June 25, the head of the National Security Council of Ukraine, Aleksey Danilov, on his Facebook page (the owner of the social network, the Meta company is recognized as extremist in Russia), said that a group of future negotiators with Kiev from Moscow allegedly already exists and President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko can take part in this dialogue . Vedomosti sent a request to the press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov.

At the same time, earlier in June, both the Russian and Ukrainian sides noted that there were no conditions for starting negotiations between them. Peskov reminded that the very possibility of negotiations is being blocked by the countries of the West, which openly want to ensure a solution to the conflict on the battlefield.

In the negotiations between Western diplomats and representatives of India, Brazil and, possibly, South Africa and China, the parties first of all verified the drafts of a peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine, Oleg Barabanov, program director of the Valdai International Discussion Club, believes. “With the exception of India, all BRICS members have come up with their own initiatives for a peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian crisis, and their projects are becoming a diplomatic reality. All these states are interested in the soonest cessation of hostilities, which pose a threat to economic stability mainly to the countries of the global South, as the President of South Africa has repeatedly said,” the expert noted.

According to Barabanov, the logic of this meeting is dictated by the need to find a compromise and bring together the approaches of Western and non-Western states regarding the settlement of the crisis. “It is no coincidence that this meeting was held at the initiative of the Ukrainians. I believe they, with the support of Western diplomats, were still trying to persuade the BRICS participants to accept Zelensky’s “peace plan”. Nevertheless, these negotiations to some extent will moderate the ardor of the Ukrainian authorities regarding the future peace treaty,” the expert believes.

The continuation of Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, Barabanov continues, is in the interests of Western states, especially against the backdrop of the recent Wagner rebellion in Russia: “The West has suddenly realized that Putin is not yet the worst option for the country and the world. They fear that a new crisis may occur in Russia, and nuclear weapons may end up in the wrong hands. In this sense, these events could influence the mood of foreign states.

Representatives of Western states could try to convince African elites not to accept President Putin at the upcoming BRICS summit on August 22-24 in South Africa, believes Alexei Arbatov, head of the Center for International Security at IMEMO RAS. “With threats and promises, they are trying to convince the South African authorities to join anti-Russian sanctions and distance themselves from Moscow,” the expert concludes.