The victory of the opposition in the elections in Spain does not guarantee it the right to form a cabinet

According to the preliminary results of the July 23 elections to the lower house of the Spanish parliament – the Congress of Deputies – the conservative People’s Party took 1st place, receiving 136 seats (33.05% of the vote). But their likely coalition with a potential ally, the far-right Vox party, is not gaining the absolute majority of 176 seats needed to form a government (Vox has 33 seats). In absolute terms, the People’s Party has significantly improved its result compared to the last elections in November 2019 (from 89 to 136 seats), while Vox worsened (from 52 to 33).

The ruling Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party, led by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, who was the initiator of early voting after the unsuccessful May municipal elections for his party, received 122 seats in parliament. This figure turned out to be much better than the pre-election forecasts, it leaves the current prime minister with theoretical chances to stay in power. The most likely ally of the socialists is the left-wing Sumar platform (it included Podemos, the United Left, the communists, Mas Spain, Mas Madrid, Compromise) with 31 seats.

Thus, in order to maintain power, Sanchez needs the support of regional parties, primarily Catalan separatists – the parties “Left Republicans of Catalonia” and “Together for Catalonia” led by separatist ideologue Carles Puigdemont (each of them has seven seats in parliament) and Basque nationalists (“Unity of the Basque Country” and “Basque Nationalist Party” received 11 seats together). On the eve of the election, Puigdemont, who has been living outside Spain for five years on charges of sedition in Catalonia and embezzlement, rejected the opportunity to join the socialists. But after the announcement of the results, representatives of “Together for Catalonia” no longer ruled out a deal with Sanchez in exchange for the fulfillment of a number of conditions.

The chairman of the People’s Party, Albert Nunez Feijoo, confirmed that he was ready to try to form a cabinet of ministers following the elections, urging opponents not to block this initiative. In his opinion, in any case, Sanchez cannot continue to lead the country, since “in history there is not a single head of government who would rule the country after he lost the elections.” If an agreement on the creation of a new government fails in the next three months, new elections will be scheduled.

The current prime minister of Spain, in turn, said that, in his opinion, the “retrograde and reactionary bloc”, advocating “for machismo”, lost the election. Vox leader Santiago Abascal also acknowledged that Sanchez could become prime minister “with the help of communists, pro-independence Catalonia and terrorists,” writes The Guardian.

At the same time, the Socialist Workers’ Party, following the results of the last elections, as a result of which Sanchez remained prime minister, had even fewer deputies than now – then it had 120, and its coalition ally Podemos had 35. Then they were helped by the Catalan separatists (with the exception of “Together for Catalonia”), who received a “guarantee of coexistence in Catalonia and the normalization of political life” within the framework of the Spanish constitution, and the Basque parties.

Sanchez emphasized in his program the expansion of “progressive rights” – securing women’s rights to menstrual leave, the right to euthanasia and abortion, but also talked about expanding social spending. The People’s Party in its program proposed to reduce taxes, and also promised to create attractive conditions in the country for foreign investors. Representatives of the Vox party oppose same-sex marriage and abortion, for the elimination of autonomies within Spain, promote anti-Islamic and anti-feminist views, but at the same time support migration from Latin American countries. Many of its members are very positive about the Spanish dictator General Francisco Franco, and if the far right comes to power now, it will be the first time since his death in 1975. At the same time, voters in Spain, according to a La Vanguardia poll, are most concerned about the economy (31%), unemployment (10%) and health care (9%).

Spain has a bicameral parliament – the Cortes General – consisting of the Senate (upper) and the Congress of Deputies (lower). The decisive role is played by the lower house, which approves the government and can dismiss it, as well as override the veto on laws, if it was previously used by the Senate.

Spain is likely to face another election, says Oleg Barabanov, Program Director of the Valdai Discussion Club. On the whole, the last vote once again showed that the country was actually split in two. In addition, it is also important that all left-wing forces traditionally oppose the whitewashing of Franco’s legacy, while even the center-right People’s Party is the opposite. Thus, the political split is superimposed on the split of historical memory and it is not clear how their country can overcome, Barabanov concludes.