The US Department of Energy raised the forecast for the price of Brent oil in 2023 to $82.62
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The US Department of Energy raised the average Brent oil price forecast for 2023 from $79.34 per barrel. to $82.62 (+4.1%) dollars per barrel, should from an Energy Information Administration (EIA) report.
In the 3rd and 4th quarters, the price of this brand of oil will be $83.77 and $87.65 per barrel. respectively. At the same time, the Brent price forecast for 2024 was raised from $83.51 to $86.48 per barrel.
According to forecasts of the agency, the average price of WTI oil in 2023 will be $77.79 against $74.43 per barrel. in the previous July forecast. In 2024, the ministry expects a price of $81.48 per barrel. (in July there was a forecast for $78.51 per barrel).
In August, the agency expects a price of $85 per barrel. The increase in prices in the Ministry of Energy was explained by a long voluntary reduction in oil production by Saudi Arabia and growing global demand. These factors will continue to put pressure on the market in the coming months.
“Our forecast is that growth in global oil production in 2024 is in line with oil demand and is putting moderate downward pressure on crude oil prices from 2024 Q2,” the report says.
The agency forecasts an increase in global fuel production by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2023 and by 1.7 million barrels per day in 2024. At the same time, production in non-OPEC countries will increase by 2.1 million bbl/d in 2023 and by 1.2 million bbl/d in 2024.
On August 4, the monitoring committee of ministers of the OPEC+ countries held a meeting, following which it did not make new recommendations on changing oil production quotas. On the eve of the Saudi Arabia meeting reported on the decision to extend the voluntary cut in oil production by 1 million barrels per day until September. At the same time, Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Alexander Novak informedthat Russia will extend the cut in oil exports to September by 300,000 barrels per day.
Earlier, analysts at Goldman Sachs predicted record demand in the oil market in the second half of 2023, which will lead to an increase in Brent crude oil prices to $86 per barrel.
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