The US Department of Agriculture has increased its crop prospects – Newspaper Kommersant No. 6 (7451) of 01/16/2023
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In a January report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) maintained its forecast for the performance of the Russian grain market: US analysts expect the country’s wheat harvest to reach 91 million tons in 2022/23 agricultural year, and exports to 43 million tons. In the Russian Federation, we recall that wheat exports are predicted in a different, record volume – 50 million tons (see “Kommersant” dated December 20, 2022). The difference in estimates can be explained by the fact that the USDA, unlike the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, does not include Crimea and the newly annexed territories in its statistics. Feed grain harvest, according to USDA, in Russia may reach 41 million tons, its export – 8.95 million tons. For the harvest and export of corn, these figures are 14 million and 3.3 million tons, respectively.
The forecast for wheat exports for the EU – the closest competitor of the Russian Federation in this part – has been increased by 0.5 million tons, to 36.5 million tons (see chart). Estimates for Ukraine have also been improved: it is now expected that the country will export 13 million tons of wheat against 12.5 tons in the December report. In total, according to USDA forecasts, 781.31 million tons of wheat will be harvested in the world (780.59 million tons were expected in December). Forecasts for other categories: 1.446 billion tons for feed grains and 1.156 billion tons for corn.
The volume of world wheat trade in 2022/23 agricultural year will be 211.6 million tons, according to the USDA, the estimate for this indicator has been increased due to the growth in the market participation of the EU and Ukraine, which compensates for the decrease in the share of India. For the same reason, the indicators of the volume of world supplies of this grain crop (in the January report it is 1.058 billion tons) and its world reserves (268.4 million tons) have been increased.
It should be noted that against the background of the fact that market indicators in USDA statistics are growing, and the food price index of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) continues to fall due to the removal of some logistics restrictions and high yields (see “Kommersant” dated January 9), the leadership of the World Food Program (WFP) speaks of an acute shortage of food. WFP Executive Director David Beasley predicts that around 349 million people in the world will be short of food in the coming year due to the impact of the pandemic and ongoing conflicts, including Russia’s military operation in Ukraine.
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