The US Congress approved a short-term budget without money for Ukraine

The US Congress managed to agree on a short-term budget on September 30, which will allow the US government to operate for the next 45 days until the next vote. The House and Senate voted overwhelmingly for the document, after which President Joe Biden signed it.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy brought this short-term government funding bill to a vote on September 30. He said this was necessary to give congressmen time to agree on a budget for the next fiscal year. Democrats, represented by the party leader in the lower house, Hakim Jeffries, first accused McCarthy of seeking to exploit the lack of time (at the time the bill was introduced, there were 11 hours left before the government shutdown ended).

At the same time, speaking about the timing, Jeffries continued to criticize the speaker for almost an hour. Representatives of the right wing of the Republican Party were also dissatisfied with their leader’s decision. They have repeatedly stated that they do not intend to vote for a short-term budget.

Given the balance of power in the House of Representatives (221-212 in favor of the Republicans), voting rules (a two-thirds vote is needed to approve the project) and resistance from his own party members, McCarthy had little chance of success. A few days earlier, an alternative budget project was agreed upon in the Senate.

But on Saturday, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell instructed his colleagues to delay the Senate version of the document and wait for the House to vote on McCarthy’s short-term plan. As a result, Democrats came to McCarthy’s rescue, and the bill was approved.

335 congressmen voted for it (out of 435), 91 were against it (of which 90 were Republicans and only one Democrat). Later, senators also approved the speaker’s bill (88 votes to 9, two did not vote).

McCarthy’s initiative does not provide funding for Ukraine. Biden said it was unacceptable to cut off aid to Kyiv and called on McCarthy to “keep his word to the Ukrainian people” and promote the approval of the next funding package through a separate special law. It is expected to be unveiled soon. Democratic and Republican leaders in the Senate, Chuck Schumer and McConnell, announced their intention to approve it. McCarthy told The Associated Press that before approving new aid packages, the administration “will have to justify what victory (for Ukraine over Russia) means in its understanding.”

Approving a short-term budget with Democratic votes could cost McCarthy his job. One of his most vocal critics, Matt Gates, warned the speaker that if he received support from Democrats, he would lose his job. According to House rules, one congressman is enough to bring to a vote the question of removing the speaker from office.

At one time, this norm was approved by McCarthy himself, when he was forced to make concessions to the right wing of the party when elected speaker in January 2023. With the threat of removal, he could theoretically secure votes from the Democrats. However, the latter may require some concessions in exchange for support. Matt Gates has already accused the speaker of colluding with them and accused him of violating several procedural rules.

By October 1 each year, Congress must approve the federal budget proposal for the next fiscal year. Otherwise, the government will be forced to close and declare a so-called shutdown. During this period, all federal agencies – except in special cases – must suspend work until the situation is resolved.

The decision of Congress does not mean a stop to aid to Ukraine, since part of the funding goes through alternative channels, for example, through the Lend-Lease program [вступил в силу 9 мая 2022 г.], scientific director of the Russian International Affairs Council Andrei Kortunov told Vedomosti. “At the administration [Байдена] there are enough resources to support Kyiv over the next month and a half,” the expert believes. Kortunov believes that the Republicans will try to insist on reducing aid, but in the end it will be insignificant.

Before the 2024 elections, there is no point in expecting any major changes in the Ukrainian direction of US foreign policy, believes Victoria Zhuravleva, head of the Center for North American Studies at IMEMO RAS. However, the expert noted, the topic of assistance to Ukraine is becoming one of the main ones in disputes between Republicans and Democrats, but less significant than, for example, the issue of social programs.

“For right-wing Republicans, financing Kyiv is a tool of manipulation, using which they hope to achieve concessions from Biden, primarily in domestic policy,” Zhuravleva believes. She also added that McCarthy, despite the threat of removal, is ready for dialogue with Democrats, which increases the chances of approval of new aid packages for Ukraine either as a separate bill or as part of the budget for the next fiscal year. “Tools for cost control may be added, the assistance process itself will be more drawn out, but we should not expect it to stop yet,” the expert concluded.