The unipolar world has lost: the final stage of the Northern War is ahead

Of course, the main credit for the dawn of our victory belongs to our warrior heroes, supported by the vast majority of our people. Our military achievements are no longer even a subject of debate. A huge achievement – the strongest army in the world – a guarantor against enemy attempts to test our strength.

My friends from a very influential military think tank shared their observations. In closed chats, where their colleagues are having discussions, the debate is going on: what will most likely destroy the Armed Forces of Ukraine? The “millstone” strategy, implemented by the Russian General Staff, grinds the enemy’s reserves in the next cauldrons (Bakhmut, Avdeevka and, most likely, further Seversk) much faster than they are prepared. Or is the “guillotine” strategy more successful – creating a huge cauldron with simultaneous cutting blows in the direction of the Dnieper from the south of the Sumy region and along the Dnieper, approximately from Ugledar.

The majority are still for the “millstone,” pointing out that the threat of the “guillotine” is already doing its job: pulling apart melting reserves.

It is noteworthy that none of the participants in the discussion “plays” for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, believing that they no longer have any serious chances. They can still slow down the catastrophe, but they can’t avoid it.

But when assessing the prospects of the Northern Military District, it is wrong to limit ourselves only to the military side of the matter. The role of two more powerful factors is no less important: the influence of the new world order, formed with the active participation of Russia, and the growing threats of the global economic crisis. All three factors create resonant mutual influences.

The disaster in the Middle East has exposed the positions of all parties involved in the conflict and, most importantly, their real capabilities. There is another stage in the destruction of the unipolar world and a clear increase in the influence of new poles of power. Russia entered the scene as an indispensable mediator, capable of developing a realistic settlement strategy. Our president’s visit to Turkey is ahead – we should expect their joint initiative with Erdogan, which could advance the crisis towards a resolution.

Even regardless of the specific results, there is a clearly recognized increase in Russia’s authority and global influence. Many people in the world are already thinking: is it worth taking part in projects directed against the Russian Federation? As they say, it will be useful to drink water.

The new architecture of the world order will have to be promoted during the BRICS+ summit, and here a clearly visible connection between both this architecture and the principles – the foundations of the NWO – will be very useful. Here it is necessary to clearly answer the request for adjustments to the principles of international law and, no less important, the mechanisms for their practical implementation.

But it is important that the few reasonable Western politicians have a growing understanding that the continuation of the NWO, with its catastrophic consequences for the regime still ruling in Ukraine, is not just a demonstration of the weakness of the West, but also a strong incentive for the collapse of its foundations.

But that would be nothing. The ideological terror of the Euro-Atlanticists still keeps the ruling elites of the West in check. Although there are cracks here too.

However, the question is: will this design withstand the “perfect storm”? Economist analysts are close to a consensus that all the factors of the global crisis are present.

The US national debt has finally turned into a financial pyramid – Mavrodi will be jealous. The national debt is almost $34 trillion. The budget deficit is almost 1.8 trillion. Together with the payment of interest on the debt (700 billion), it is necessary to attract $2.5 trillion from the market. This is an almost unbridled build-up of debt.

Even usually loyal rating agencies are worried. Thus, the Fitch agency lowered the US credit rating. Moody’s changed the rating outlook from stable to negative. If it downgrades the rating, then many funds will not only not be able to buy, but will simply be forced to sell Treasury bonds. This is a shock that will inevitably destroy the entire global financial system.

A default on the national debt will not help either. The budget deficit still needs to be financed, and loans after a default will be given only against the security of liquid assets. What is called a sale of “house silver” will be needed. I suggest getting in line at this sale in advance and buying back from the National Gallery the great masterpieces that were sold from the Hermitage in the 30s. And every time I walk, tears well up.

Some Republicans simply shout about the need to curb the growth of the national debt and remind that the total debt in the United States is $104 trillion and the country is turning into a house of cards that can collapse from a strong push.

But in the conditions of a deadly electoral battle there is no time for national interests. The level of confrontation between Democrats and Republicans is approaching the boiling point. Mutual hatred overshadows the arguments of reason. The absolute majority already recognizes the possibility of civil war. Hatred pushes rabid Bidenites to make endless accusations against Trump, insane in terms of electoral consequences. And the Republicans are throwing wood on the fire of the national confrontation: as part of the impeachment procedure, an investigation has been launched into corruption charges against the Biden family. This resonates with the general public.

The decline of New Rome is complemented by a picture of spreading drug addiction, street crime, and poorly controlled migration from the south. Everything is heading towards the abyss.

Things are no better in Europe. Germany still played out before the economic recession and pulled Austria along with it. The Czech Republic is ahead, and… The European Bank is no longer a saving anchor. Business is screaming about the irresponsibility of politicians in the face of the crisis. And against this background, the main concern is helping the drowning Zelensky…

But financial analysts reassure: yes, all the threats of the crisis are present, but there are no “black swans” – events that unexpectedly and negatively change the agenda. And without them, as a rule, a crisis does not occur. Well, how can you not see it?! Not like swans, scavenger vultures have already flown to Brussels and are waiting for prey from the European Quarter. After all, in six months there will be elections to the European Parliament.

And if they pass under the roar of guns? Then all the troubles of the voters will spill out. The matter will not be limited to the struggle against the omnipotence of the Brussels bureaucrats. The focus of the struggle will be the protection of traditional values, the protection of children from “progressives” with their “gender education.” There will also be a discussion of the costs of recklessly following US orders.

And it’s not even a matter of the share of Eurosceptic votes, although it, this share, will increase sharply. It is important that the result will be a strong polarization of forces in the European Parliament, long-term quarrels with the appointment of a new leadership of the European Union. There are many chances that the collapse of Euro-Atlanticism as the dominant ideology will simply be a geopolitical shock.

Against the backdrop of a political storm, the nerves of stockbrokers may give way, the hurricane of the crisis will unfold in full force, and the scavengers will begin to collect their prey.

I wouldn’t rush to rejoice. The global crisis means millions of starving people and the collapse of the economies of underdeveloped countries. For Russia, with its traditions of compassion for the “humiliated and insulted,” it is important to remind now of these risks: “he who has ears, let him hear.” It would be useful to create a crisis group within BRICS+ now.

In conditions when the resolution of the crisis in Ukraine is increasingly moving into a practical plane, it is important to clearly show that our actions are a clear and consistent implementation of the principles and norms of international law.

The underlying principle here is clear: no one should benefit from violations of international law. The contours of this principle begin to emerge in the settlement of the Middle East crisis, and even more so it must be consistently implemented within the framework of the settlement of the crisis around Ukraine.

The special military operation in this regard is a legal reprisal for the violation by Ukraine and its accomplices of the UN Security Council resolution, which supported the Minsk agreements with its authority. The unilateral actions of Russia, the guarantor of the Minsk agreements, are a forced measure in conditions when the other two guarantors – Germany and France – not only evaded their responsibilities, but deliberately violated international law.

Accordingly, Ukrainian leaders guilty of deliberately violating these norms must face criminal penalties. Together with them, responsibility lies with their accomplices – leaders and officials of Germany, France, Great Britain and the United States, who through their actions contributed to the violation of international law.

It is also necessary to clarify the basis of our position on the entry of new territories into Russia. The constitutionally enshrined territory within Russia is not a subject for discussion, it is a norm of our Constitution.

But it must also be recalled that the long-standing dispute about the relationship between the right of nations to self-determination, on the one hand, and territorial integrity, on the other, was long ago resolved by the Atlanticists themselves in favor of self-determination. The precedent of self-determination accepted by the entire world community is the independence of Slovenia and Croatia. In violation of the Yugoslav Constitution, the parliaments of these republics declared their independence, and the very next day this independence was recognized by a number of European countries, primarily Germany.

This in turn means that international law recognizes the priority of the right to self-determination, based on the free expression of people. No, I don’t think that this argument will convince the Atlanticists who are bitten: “the more liberal, the more vulgar they are” (F.I. Tyutchev). But for friends and allies, this is a completely comprehensive explanation.

All of the above means that the West is faced with a choice: either accept Russian principles of settlement and end the conflict by spring, or start a nightmare, the culprits of which will be themselves.

In a crisis, the West will have no time for Ukraine at all. Here, after the collapse of the state in the very center of Europe, a dangerous vacuum will arise. If anyone can escape, expect millions of refugees. The fate of the Russian world is clear and quite happy. In ownerless areas, without money and without power, bloody chaos will reign with mass casualties.

The West cannot escape the choice. And don’t say later that you weren’t warned.