The UN Climate Conference announced the beginning of the end of the oil age

The result of the two-week UN climate conference COP28, which ended on Wednesday in Dubai (UAE), was the adoption of a document on the gradual cessation of the use of fossil fuels by 2050. Many experts called the adopted recommendations historic – the need to move away from the fossil fuel-based economic model was recorded at the UN climate negotiations for the first time. However, the formulations of such a transition have been adopted very broadly and are quite suitable for raw materials countries, including Russia: they give all participants in the process the opportunity to go towards the goal of 2050 in their own way, including the development of the use of nuclear energy and even natural gas. In general, for the Russian delegation, participation in COP28 was more of a political and image-related nature – the Russian Federation showed that it continues to participate in international processes and is ready to implement joint climate projects.

The next session of UN climate negotiations ended in Dubai on Wednesday morning with a delay of more than 12 hours. The main point of the heated night debate among the delegates was the wording of the final document of the conference related to the countries’ intention to abandon the use of fossil fuels. Developed countries and countries most vulnerable to the effects of global warming advocated a “complete exit from fossil fuels.” Countries producing oil, gas and coal have proposed a “gradual reduction” or “reduction in consumption and production” of such fuels.

As a result, the final document included a compromise formulation about the desired “transition from fossil fuels in energy systems” by 2050.

Next, various ways of such a transition and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions are mentioned: from increasing the absorption of emissions through natural ecosystems, technologies for their capture and disposal of emissions, to the use of low-carbon hydrogen, the development of nuclear energy and even the use of “transition fuel” (meaning primarily natural gas as a less climate-damaging fossil).

The executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, Simon Steele, called the outcome document “the beginning of the end of fossil fuels”, saying that all governments and companies now need to “immediately turn these promises into real economic results.” Multiple government and non-government experts called the conference’s decision historic, noting that it was the first time in climate negotiations that it mentioned fossil fuels and the need to move away from the economic model based on them.

Representatives of civil society and environmental organizations are more critical in assessing the results of COP28.

Thus, the international association of organizations and activists working on climate change, Climate Action Network, announced that the text of the final document contains many potential “loopholes for false solutions,” while the collected amount of climate finance for developing countries (to reduce greenhouse gas emissions) , adaptation to climate change and coverage for damage to which it is impossible to adapt) is still insufficient.

However, in two weeks, about $800 million was collected into the Loss and Damage Fund created last year – the EU, Germany, UAE, UK, USA and Japan announced their contribution to it in Dubai. According to analysts at the World Resources Institute (USA), however, in order to achieve global climate goals of curbing the rise in temperature on the planet, international climate funds need to accumulate at least $4.3 trillion per year by 2030.

Among other COP28 decisions, more than 130 countries announced their intention to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030, more than 150 promised to set a separate target for greenhouse gas emissions in the food sector, and more than 120 signed the Climate and Health Declaration, recognizing the negative impact of climate on health population and promising to modernize healthcare systems based on climate risks (almost $500 million was promised to be allocated for this by international funds and national governments).

The UN climate summit is taking place for the second year against the backdrop of military conflicts.

Events in the Middle East were especially noticeable on the unofficial agenda of COP28 – almost every day climate activists held actions indirectly related to human rights issues and the situation in Palestine.

The Iranian delegation left the negotiations almost at the very beginning, and the president of this country officially refused to attend them – all because of the participation of the Israeli delegation. Ukrainian climate activists protested the Russian delegation’s participation in the conference and Vladimir Putin’s visit to the UAE, presenting in the Ukrainian pavilion estimates of additional greenhouse gas emissions due to military action (the volume of which was said to be comparable to Belgium’s emissions over the 18 months of the conflict). . As a result, Russia twice received the “Fossil of the Day” anti-award from public organizations and became the owner (along with the USA and OPEC) of the “Colossal Fossil” anti-award based on the overall results of two-week negotiations.

Let us note that for the Russian delegation, participation in COP28 was rather of a political and image nature – it was important for the Russian Federation to show that the country is participating in international processes and is actively developing dialogue with the countries of the global South. Climate Adviser to the Russian President Ruslan Edelgeriev spoke about commitment to the goals of the Paris Agreement, the Russian Federation’s plans to achieve carbon neutrality no later than 2060, and the possibility of voluntarily making a financial contribution to the Loss and Damage Fund “at the expense of frozen national gold and foreign exchange reserves in international organizations.”

There were two Russian pavilions at COP28.

One was an official one, in which representatives of authorities and companies (mainly from sectors such as metallurgy, fertilizer production and nuclear energy) talked about projects in the field of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and further plans for low-carbon development. The second pavilion worked in the exhibition area of ​​the conference, where the project “Pleistocene Park” in Yakutia was presented, where scientists, through the reintroduction of large herbivores, are trying to recreate the ecosystems of the so-called mammoth steppes of Eurasia of the late Pleistocene. Also at the official event of the Russian Federation, representatives of Roshydromet and scientists spoke about the creation of a permafrost monitoring system – it is planned to install 140 observation points throughout the Russian Federation.

Representatives of the Ministry of Energy at the conference traditionally spoke about the low-carbon nature of Russian energy (meaning nuclear, hydro and gas generation), about the lack of common sense in the development of renewable energy sources on such a scale as is happening in the EU, and advocated a rational approach to issues of decarbonization, calling plans to triple renewable energy sources by 2030 “slogans and extremism.” Andrey Melnichenko (already informally associated with companies in the coal energy and fertilizer sectors and a citizen of the UAE) spoke for the second year in a row about the futility of efforts to combat only a small amount of greenhouse gases emitted by the global economy – and called for more natural solutions that can begin to absorb more amount of emissions. He proposed creating a single market for carbon units resulting from the implementation of natural projects that contribute to the absorption of greenhouse gases – at the BRICS+ level. The head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, Kirill Dmitriev, also announced negotiations with the BRICS+ countries on the topic of creating a common market for carbon units, including the priority direction of mutual investment in natural climate solutions (against the backdrop of the Russian Federation’s disconnection from international systems of standardization and verification of carbon units). However, the prospects for such intentions still raise doubts among experts (see Kommersant Online, November 30) – including due to countries’ plans to concentrate on reducing emissions primarily on their territory or as part of international development assistance in the countries of the global South , and also due to the continuation of the military conflict in Ukraine.

Heated discussions at the forum were sparked by the question of the location of the climate summit 2024 – according to the rules of rotation, it should be held in the region of Eastern Europe (including the countries of the Caucasus). Bulgaria’s initial application was blocked by Russia (which stated that any EU country would not be neutral in organizing such a summit), Armenia and Azerbaijan blocked each other’s applications for a long time, but as a result, the decision was made to hold COP29 in Baku.

Angelina Davydova