The tenth package of EU sanctions was considered meaningless by economists

“All the measures mentioned look vague”

In February, the European Parliament may approve the tenth package of sanctions against Russia. It is not yet clear what specific measures will be included in this “anniversary” document, the adoption of which can be timed to coincide with the anniversary of the start of the NWO. All information published in the European media is based more on leaks and rumors than on official statements. According to the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, the package is designed to “close loopholes in the restrictions already adopted.”

The main initiators are Polish and Lithuanian diplomats, who propose measures that could not be previously agreed upon due to the opposition of a number of EU countries. According to the Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita, first of all, we are talking about nuclear energy and specifically about the leading industry state company Rosatom. It may end up on the “black list” of the EU, and this step will lead to the curtailment of cooperation between Europeans and the nuclear industry of the Russian Federation.

When discussing the 9th package, Hungary opposed any restrictions in the field of peaceful atom, thereby blocking the initiative of Warsaw and Vilnius. To date, it has four nuclear reactors built in the Russian Federation, and plans to commission two more. Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on January 27 that his government would “veto” any EU sanctions against Russian nuclear energy organizations and enterprises. Budapest “threw a wrench” into the mechanism for extending sanctions, the American edition of Politico noted.

As part of the 9th package, the EU countries failed to agree on limiting the export of diamonds from Russia (which brings about €4.5 billion to its budget annually), since Belgium opposed it. Now the European Parliament intends to return to this issue. In addition, according to Rzeczpospolita, it is proposed to expand the ban on the supply of dual-use goods, disconnect even more Russian banks from the SWIFT payment system, and lower the upper price limit for Russian oil, which is currently $60 per barrel.

“To say very briefly and simply about the tenth package of EU sanctions, I see in it an attempt to “tighten the screws” to the limit,” says Artem Deev, head of the analytical department at AMarkets. “These restrictions will finally close the remaining opportunities for the banking sector and individual industrial enterprises of the Russian Federation, since large-scale sectoral sanctions have already been introduced and are in effect.” The main negative is associated with the oil sector, which has the largest share in domestic exports and budget revenues, Deev notes. As for the sanctions against Rosatom, “Europe will hurt itself more, since cooperation with this company ensures the uninterrupted operation of several nuclear power plants in the eurozone.”

All the mentioned measures look vague, and their consequences are unpredictable. And it is not a fact that the European Union will decide to lower the price ceiling for Russian oil, says Nikita Maslennikov, a leading expert at the Center for Political Technologies. According to him, the United States is extremely skeptical about such a scenario, offering to wait at least a month. In early February, the next meeting of the participants in the OPEC + deal will take place, and on February 5, the embargo on the supply of Russian oil products by sea will come into force: these events can make significant adjustments to the situation, which will certainly need to be taken into account.

“As for the disconnection of the next portion of banks from SWIFT, this is a completely expected step that fits into the general logic of the sanctions strategy,” says Maslennikov. – It will only lead to the fact that Russia will accelerate cooperation with the banking sectors of friendly countries, will try to make it more full-fledged. But the hypothetical entry of Rosatom into the “black list” of the EU will result in increased pressure on Hungary, Turkey and other countries where Russia is building nuclear power plants. In general, the topic of the peaceful use of atomic energy is so delicate and painful for many states that it should be approached with extreme caution. Otherwise, there is a risk of breaking firewood, as the West once did with respect to Iran.”

It seems that the EU sanctions resource is close to exhaustion, argues TeleTrade analyst Alexei Fedorov. In his opinion, the proposed measures will either not affect the Russian economy in any way, or they will cause more harm to the European one. Firstly, Belgium will not refuse diamonds from the Russian Federation: in the event of a ban on Russian supplies (the volume in 2021 is $1.7-1.8 billion), it will have to buy them through intermediaries from India, the UAE or another country. Which, of course, will increase prices and reduce income. Accordingly, the Belgian authorities will continue to block all attempts of such restrictions.

Secondly, Rosatom’s projects in Europe are now mainly concentrated in Hungary, where local authorities planned to expand the capacity of the already operating Paks nuclear power plant. The goal is to increase the stability of the energy system of the country and its neighbors. In this, by the way, the interests of the European Commission and Prime Minister Viktor Orban coincide.

“The only truly effective way to reduce Russia’s export earnings would be to lower the price ceiling for oil and petroleum products,” says Fedorov. “But this will require a general agreement of the G7 countries, which we don’t see yet: everyone wants to understand how the market will behave under the current sanctions against the Russian oil sector, how prices will develop.”