The surplus is forgiven, but does not go away – Newspaper Kommersant No. 190 (7391) of 10/13/2022

The federal budget in September closed with a deficit for the fourth month in a row – this time in the amount of 83 billion rubles. Revenues in the past month compared to last September slightly decreased, while expenses increased markedly. Nevertheless, due to the very successful first third of the year in terms of income, the budget still remains in a small surplus following the results of all nine months. According to the budget package submitted to the State Duma, a deficit of 1.3 trillion rubles is expected by the end of 2022. The Ministry of Finance, however, admits that due to new spending that has arisen recently, it may become more significant.

In September, the federal budget was executed with a deficit of about 83 billion rubles. (Recall that the Ministry of Finance has not given monthly figures since May). This is noticeably less than it was in August (345 billion rubles) and in July (893 billion rubles) – therefore, the transition of the budget to a deficit, which followed from the previous rates of deterioration in the balance sheet (see Fig. “Kommersant” for September 13), did not occur in September. Based on the results of all nine months, the budget remained in surplus, but its size decreased to only 55 billion rubles – at the peak in January-May it was equal to 1.495 trillion rubles.

However, the Ministry of Finance has no doubts about the fact that total revenues lag behind expenditures in the remaining three months of the year – in the materials for the draft budget for the next three years, we are talking about a 2022 deficit in the amount of 1.3 trillion rubles, or 0.9% of GDP. But already after the budget package was submitted to the State Duma, at the end of September, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov explained that “most likely” this figure would be more significant, noting the “new tasks” that had arisen this year.

It is planned to close the future hole in the budget at the expense of the accumulations of the National Welfare Fund (NWF), which is not yet formally used.

Formally, because with the suspension of budgetary rules, the additional oil and gas revenues previously allocated to the fund are now accumulated in the form of balances and are spent by the government on current tasks. In December, according to Anton Siluanov, money directly from the NWF will still be needed to close the deficit. This is due to the fact that a significant part of budget spending falls on the last month of the year (usually this is due to shock payments for contracts by budget recipients, with advanced social payments, intergovernmental transfers and debt servicing) – in December, spending is usually two to three times higher than the average monthly, and deficits relative to GDP can reach double digits.

It should be noted that the budget is moving towards a deficit with very good indicators of its revenue side – for nine months, revenues amounted to 19.74 trillion rubles, and this is 10% more than it was for the same period in 2021 (growth within inflation). All this nominal increase was provided by oil and gas revenues, which increased on expensive oil and gas by 37%, to 8.51 trillion rubles. against 6.19 trillion rubles. a year earlier. In September, however, as in August, there was no longer year-on-year growth – 688 billion rubles were collected from the sale and production of oil and gas to the budget, and this is 4.3% less than it was in September last year (719 billion rubles). Russian oil, sold at a “geopolitical” discount, has become cheaper for the third month in a row. In September, according to the Ministry of Finance, it cost $68.25 per barrel. With this in mind, the actual price of Urals for nine months has already dropped to the level expected by the government for the entire year – $80 per barrel. With non-oil and gas, that is, with other budget revenues, the situation looks worse: minus 4.3% for the first nine months and minus 4.1% separately for September.

The movement towards a deficit with such relatively good incomes is explained by a significant increase in the expenditure side of the budget.

For nine months, spending amounted to 19.68 trillion rubles – this is immediately plus 3.39 trillion rubles. (20.8%) compared to the same period last year. In September, the growth rate of spending accelerated (from 8.4% in August), jumping up to 32%. In the updated budget list of expenditures of the Ministry of Finance for 2022, spending has already been increased to 28.454 trillion rubles – by 3.7 trillion rubles. from last year’s total. Based on these figures, in the last quarter, budgetary expenditures should be carried out with only a slight excess of last year’s schedule.

Vadim Visloguzov