The stashes remain: Russians are urgently purchasing apartments in fear of the cancellation of preferential mortgages

The issuance of preferential mortgages in September reached a maximum in the entire history of its existence, despite the fact that in the middle of the month the down payment was increased by the authorities from 15% to 20% to cool the market. This is stated in the review of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation “What trends are talking about.”

The excitement around preferential mortgages is now so great that cases of double receipt have been recorded on the market, to which the authorities have already responded. Whether Russia faces a mortgage crisis, a sharp rise in real estate prices, or the cancellation of all state support programs, MK found out from experts.

According to the regulator, the high demand for preferential mortgages among Russians was caused by fears of a possible curtailment of this program, as well as by the fact that many compatriots consider real estate as a protective asset against the backdrop of inflation. “In September, issuances under preferential programs reached their maximum in the entire history of their existence, despite the fact that supply was limited by an increase in the minimum contribution from 15 to 20%,” the Bank of Russia noted.

The regulator did not specify the final figures for the first month of autumn, but in August the main driver of issuances in the primary market was preferential mortgages, which accounted for 60% of all issued housing loans. The popularity of such programs turned out to be so high that banks were even faced with issuing two or more preferential mortgages for one person, although since 2023 you can only get a similar housing loan once.

The Russians, who tried to outwit financial institutions and the state, took advantage of the technical delay in updating the databases in the credit history bureaus. It occurs on average once every three days. During this time, unscrupulous borrowers managed to obtain approval for preferential mortgages from various credit institutions.

The authorities closed this loophole only in September: banks received the right to increase the rate if they were not entitled to compensation from the budget for an issued mortgage loan. True, the law does not apply to old loans, so no one will deliberately break the contract with the Russians who managed to carry out such an operation.

One of the painful consequences of the rush demand for preferential mortgages has been the increase in the cost per square meter in new buildings. “In some regions of the country, prices have already increased by an average of 8-9%,” noted Associate Professor of the Russian Economic University. Plekhanov Dmitry Osyanin. The inflated cost of housing, as well as rising mortgage interest rates, may lead to an increase in the debt burden on citizens, which could become a risk factor for their financial well-being and disapproval of a loan, taking into account today’s requirements of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in the future, the expert warned.

At the same time, despite the ongoing market changes under the influence of preferential mortgage programs, both the Bank of Russia and independent experts are confident that there is no risk of a “bubble” in the real estate market in our country.

“The share of mortgages to GDP in Russia is only 10%,” notes Vadim Butin, head of the mortgage lending department at Glavstroy-Nedvizhimost. — And, for example, in the USA it exceeds 50%, in Europe – 52%, in the UK – 85%. Therefore, the market in our country has sufficient growth margin before a real threat appears.”

In addition, for the emergence of danger, it is not so much the volume of mortgages that is important, but the well-being of citizens and their ability to repay bank loans. “For a credit market crisis to occur, an increase in the share of problem loans is necessary, which is not currently observed, therefore the risk of the so-called mortgage “bubble” remains low for now,” believes Vladimir, vice-president of the Association of Lawyers for Registration, Liquidation, Bankruptcy and Litigation Kuznetsov.

The regulator, the Central Bank, is monitoring the situation quite closely. In particular, the authorities have already taken measures to cool the market, in addition to increasing the down payment. Thus, rates on preferential mortgage programs in October increased to maximum values ​​due to a decrease in subsidies for such programs.

If in July the average rate on family mortgages was 5.6%, and on mortgages with state support – 7.7%, then by October 13 it increased to 6% and 8%, respectively, follows from Frank RG analysis. “Right now, a home buyer needs to be more solvent than just a couple of months ago, and even more so than a year ago. You need to have more savings for the down payment,” emphasizes Asterus Commercial Director Vera Stefan. “This entails a narrowing of the market, so talking about a “bubble” becomes less and less relevant.”

However, the situation for the authorities is difficult, because the real estate and construction sector is considered a driver of economic growth, which Russia so needs under sanctions. If you do not touch the preferential mortgage, then the very “bubble” that everyone is so afraid of may appear in the market.

If it is cancelled, then the developers will have to save money from ruin. If you introduce preferential mortgages for the secondary market, prices on the secondary market will go up. And if the Central Bank of the Russian Federation lowers the rate and the state does not have to support the sector with its programs, then inflation will accelerate, which will have a bad impact on everyone. Therefore, any decisions in the housing lending market are fraught with new risks.