The secret mission of “Jade” on the “Nord Stream”: what will happen to the gas pipelines

Moscow risks losing billions of dollars from “freezing” blown up highways

Russia can start assessing the damage to the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline at any time. A specially equipped Russian-flagged vessel, the Nephrite, hired by the pipeline operator Nord Stream AG, arrived at the site of the recent explosions in the Swedish zone. The study of the destroyed section will take less than a week, after which it will be possible to predict how much time and money it will take to repair the gas pipeline. Meanwhile, even when the pipe is patched up, it is far from certain that it will immediately be put into operation.

The future of both Nord Streams is a big question and there is a possibility that the gas pipelines will be empty for a long time to come.

According to Nord Stream AG, after the calibration work, the company’s specialists will be able to start examining the damaged area within a day. An assessment of the damage caused by the explosion promises to take no more than five days. True, you will first have to obtain permission to carry out underwater operations from the Swedish authorities. The gas pipeline operator also sent a request for similar work to the relevant Danish regulators.

First of all, according to Aleksey Grivach, Deputy General Director of the National Energy Security Fund, the Nephrite team was given the task of collecting complete information about the damage to the project, naming the possible causes of the disaster, as well as giving a preliminary assessment of the damage and estimating the cost of eliminating defects. The information obtained, among other things, will be useful in contacts with insurance companies to obtain compensation for damage.

However, the main task of the vessel sent to the Baltic Sea, apparently, will be an elementary understanding of the possibility of restoration work. In other words, is it worth in principle to repair this export channel from the point of view of the future profitability of the gas pipeline.

The work of “Nephrite” will be complicated not only by weather conditions, but also by diplomatic circumstances. Stockholm announced its desire to conduct its own investigation of the accident equated to a terrorist act. True, if Russia chartered a civilian vessel for underwater research, Sweden entrusted these tasks to two minesweepers of its air fleet.

Other interested parties are also investigating the incident. In mid-October, Berlin conducted its own examination, again using law enforcement agencies for analysis. Investigators of the German Federal Police, having borrowed an underwater drone from colleagues from the German Armed Forces, took photographs of areas of damage to the pipeline. The Germans promise to formulate their summary after summing up the results of research work.

“The final conclusions, most likely, for purely political reasons, will turn out to be extremely unpleasant for Russia,” warns investment strategist at Arikapital Management Company Sergey Suverov. “German investigators, as well as Swedish and Danish experts who are also investigating the causes of explosions on Russian gas pipelines, will issue a verdict that is necessary and consistent not only with their own government, but also with the political interests of the European Union.”

According to the analyst, it will not be a surprise if the result of the examination of European countries, to which Moscow is not allowed, will be the imposition of a complete moratorium on the transportation of hydrocarbons along the destroyed routes. By the way, with regard to Nord Stream 2, which was also hit by as yet unknown attackers, the German government issued a verdict even without conducting any detailed investigation. In response to a request from the head of the Alternative for Germany faction, Leif-Erik Holm, whose party votes for the need to launch this pipeline, the German Cabinet replied that there was no technical availability for pumping gas through both strings.

However, Moscow has already begun to prepare for such a turn of events. According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the launch of the remaining entire Nord Stream 2 pipeline (as a result of explosions, only half of the gas pipeline’s capacity was disabled – “MK”) “is unrealistic, and nothing depends on Russia here.”

“It is unlikely that the words of the head of state should be treated as another ultimatum to Europe,” Suverov believes. – If EU representatives, even from countries that were previously considered our main partners, doubt the real use of Russia’s Baltic submarine export routes, is it worth arguing with them?

The funeral of Nord Stream will cost Moscow tens of billions of dollars in losses not only from unpaid investments, but also from future lost profits. It is better to build new transport routes to more accommodating and politically unpretentious Asian regions.”

However, the expert believes that it is too early to erect gravestones over both destroyed pipelines. “Let’s see with what losses Europe will survive the coming winter. Then it will become clear how the governments of the continent are ready to put an end to energy resources from our country,” says Suverov.