The season of big discounts: foreigners massively sell warehouses and offices

Offices

In the outgoing year, the greatest activity of investors was observed in the office segment: it accounts for 37% of the total investment in commercial real estate. As Irina Khoroshilova, head of the CORE.XP office real estate department, told MK, the majority of tenants preferred finished premises due to the rise in price of building materials. Moreover, 19% of the total volume of demand accounted for purchase and sale transactions. In December of this year, according to her, the share of vacant space rose to 11%.

Due to the mass exodus of international companies, most of the vacant premises formed in the segment of class A buildings. This trend was especially evident in Moscow City and the capital’s Leningrad business district. The most difficult situation in Belokamennaya for landlords is observed in offices located outside the Moscow Ring Road: here the share of vacant space increased in 2022 to 21.2%. Business leaders who want to save on rent should pay attention to this fact.

Similar processes are taking place in St. Petersburg. Here, according to experts, according to the results of this year, 12-14% of the area may be empty.

The profile of tenants has changed. Thus, according to Nikoliers, 48% of the demand for metropolitan offices fell on government agencies and industrial companies, primarily from the oil and gas sector. A year earlier, these sectors collectively accounted for only 19%. But the share of IT and telecommunications for the year decreased from 30% to 9%. The same situation is observed in St. Petersburg. The reason for the changes was explained by the Ministry of Digital Development: according to its data, during the two waves of emigration this year, about 100,000 IT specialists left the Russian Federation and did not return.

According to analysts, companies with state participation will be the main drivers of demand in the market for another 3 years. Next year, according to Khoroshilova’s forecast, due to the departure of international companies, the peak share of free high-quality offices, including direct lease and sublease, will occur at the end of the first quarter of 2023. At the same time, in her opinion, the average rental rates will remain at the current level, but the difference between the requested rates and their values ​​in transactions will increase. So tenants will have a chance to rent a decent office at a discount.

Warehouses

The second largest investment this year was the warehouse segment (34%). Investments in logoparks reached about 75 billion rubles. (+23% compared to the result of 2021), which is a historical record for this sector. One of the major deals of the year was the sale of the South Gates logopark in Domodedovo in the south of Moscow, which previously belonged to the Czechs. As analysts admit on condition of anonymity, international operators sell assets to Russians at huge discounts. Often the discount reaches 50% of market prices.

According to the calculations of analysts of the Sberbank collateral service, multi-temperature warehouses (46%), which have dry, cold and freezing rooms, became the leaders in terms of the volume of attracted investments. They are followed by fulfillment centers (36%) – warehouse complexes aimed at sorting, labeling, packaging, distribution and temporary storage of goods. A small share of the market (6-7%) is occupied by wholesale distribution, multi-storey warehouses and industrial and warehouse facilities.

The trend towards the implementation of warehouse projects based on the Build-to-suit principle continued. The share of projects “for a specific client” in the total investment by mid-2022 was 65%.

The main drivers of demand for logoparks are retail: e-commerce, the leader of the last two years, as well as classic retail, primarily grocery, developing incl. and a popular discounter format.

Another interesting trend is that warehouse operators have taken a course towards digitalization. So, in December, the first robotic sorting center in the north-west of the country was opened near St. Petersburg. 95 robots process more than 4,000 shipments per hour.

“A large number of class C premises have appeared on the market, but it is difficult to find free high-quality warehouses of classes B and A, and even in the right area,” Pavel Mukhortov, co-founder of rental companies in Moscow and the Moscow region, told MK. – Dry warehouses with an area of ​​​​up to 500 square meters are in great demand. m. But large refrigerators have become irrelevant. Customers want to store from a few pallets and pay according to the actual space occupied. The temperatures requested are different. Participants in the warehouse market are waiting for the construction of new large refrigerators with multi-temperature chambers near airports.

Under the influence of the growth in available supply, after reaching peak values ​​in Q1 (up to 6,000–6,500 rubles per sq. m per year), they returned to the level of the end of 2021 (5,500–5,600 rubles per sq. m per year) and fixed at this level. According to Pavel Mukhortov, in 2023 the tariffs for class A and B warehouses will not change much, but the rent of class C warehouses will become much cheaper.

Shopping centers

The retail real estate sector (17% in the structure of investments in commercial real estate) in 2022 suffered more than others from Western sanctions. For example, from January to November, the Mall Index (number of visitors per 1,000 sq. m) in the largest shopping centers (more than 80,000 sq. m) in Moscow and the Moscow region decreased by 25% compared to the same period last year.

In 2022, under the pressure of sanctions, all public international brands left Russia or restructured. The departure of IKEA and the H&M brand group has become the most sensitive for shopping center owners. Among the brands that have restructured are Polish LPP (RE, Sin, M, CR, XC) and CCC (Obuv), McDonald’s (Tasty and point), French L’Occitane (L’Occitane), Spanish Mango, Reebok ( SneakerBOX), Samsonite (ChemodanPRO), Sephora (purchased by Ile de Bote) and others. At the same time, a number of Turkish and Armenian brands, on the contrary, decided to enter the Russian market.

The departure of foreign brands was most acutely felt by the largest shopping centers – their attendance decreased by 25% over the year. This situation is forcing developers to abandon the implementation of new projects, so by the end of 2022, the commissioning of retail real estate will be minimal. In the capital, following the results of 9 months of 2022, only 4 new shopping centers with an area of ​​64,400 sq. m, according to a report by Knight Frank Russia. This is 61.5% less than a year earlier.

The most active tenants of retail space, according to experts, this year were tobacco shops, catering outlets and fashion retailers. For the first time in 5 years, in the structure of new transactions for the lease of premises in shopping centers, the categories of “services and entertainment” (fitness, repair shops, beauty salons, medical centers, rental points, thermal baths, bowling alleys, quests) “overtook” the traditional leader – the fashion segment (clothing, shoes, accessories).

Structural changes were not only due to the exodus of international brands. The sector was negatively affected by the coronavirus pandemic and the development of online trading. Of course, in 2023 the influence of these factors will not weaken. Due to the increase in the level of free space, developers’ plans to commission new shopping centers in Moscow and the regions will be adjusted. Most likely, outdated shopping centers will be transformed into specialized formats: entertainment, furniture, discount stores. Part of the retail space can be used for the placement of warehouses or industries.

Hotels

In the past year, international brands (IHG, Marriott and Sokos) left the Russian hotel market, some operators limited their activities in the country, and also withdrew from some projects. “These decisions did not lead to a reduction in the number of high-quality operating hotel facilities, since in most cases hotels in the Russian Federation were not owned by foreign companies, but were managed or franchised by them,” said the head of the CORE consulting services platform and investment and capital markets department. XP Irina Ushakova.

In her opinion, thanks to the growth of domestic tourism and government assistance in 2022, the Russian hospitality industry managed to avoid a critical drop. Among the support measures, it is worth highlighting the “zero” VAT for 5 years for the CSR and the program for issuing preferential loans at a rate of 5%. In addition, the hotel market was supported by the cashback program, as well as the development of out-of-town and regional tourism. As a result, new tourist destinations have appeared within Russia.

According to Ushakova’s forecast, in 2023 the flow of foreign tourists will remain limited, which will affect the level of occupancy of the luxury segment and hotels of the upper price segment. Active domestic demand will stimulate the loading of hotels in more budget segments. “In 2023, the expected total investment in commercial real estate in the Russian Federation may reach about 200 billion rubles. In connection with the ongoing process of leaving foreign owners, we expect major transactions with commercial real estate,” concluded Ushakova.