The Russians wanted a pension of 69 thousand rubles: is it realistic to accumulate it

“To get a pension increase of at least 30 thousand rubles, you should start saving from the age of 20”

The average Russian, according to a recent opinion poll, wants to have a pension of 69 thousand rubles. This is more than three times the average amount of current old-age insurance payments of 21.8 thousand. Is it achievable in real life? Anton Siluanov, who announced the state program of long-term savings, spoke indirectly on this topic. According to the Minister of Finance, 2 million people may soon join it. The problem is that the forecasts of officials and the behavior of citizens often diverge.

The gap between expected and actual pensions is so huge for a variety of reasons. For example, due to low indexation and widespread gray schemes (“salaries in an envelope”). Meanwhile, according to the ILO convention, the recommended coefficient of replacement of lost earnings by pensions should be at least 40%. In a number of countries it reaches 75%, and in Russia – less than 27%.

In particular, the long-term savings program, which will be launched from January 2024, is called upon to bridge the gap between the harsh retirement reality and the blissful “wishlist”: it involves co-financing from the state for three years – if a person does not withdraw funds from the account for 15 years. According to officials, the project will attract 300 billion rubles, and citizens (the very expected 2 million) will receive additional income in the future. Participation is voluntary, it is allowed to conclude agreements with various NPFs (non-state pension funds). Savings will be insured by analogy with bank deposits, but twice the amount – 2.8 million rubles.

So will this system help you get the desired 69 thousand per month? “In order to save up for a pension of 69 thousand rubles, in a classical situation, a person must save at least 20% of his salary for at least 30 years,” says Alexander Safonov, professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. – Provided that the money will not disappear anywhere and will not depreciate. While having a salary of at least 350 thousand rubles. It is unlikely that there will be 2 million people who receive such an amount and have not yet taken care of their old age. Plus, we must keep in mind: this is a forecast, not a fait accompli. Probably, we are talking about people who already have some savings in NPFs, not being participants in corporate programs.”

In fact, the mechanism that the Ministry of Finance is talking about can only bring benefits in the first three years, when co-financing from the state is provided: your income is supplemented by exactly the same amount that you deposit to the NPF account, but not more than 36 thousand rubles. In this case, the annual percentage will be 100%, Safonov notes. Then revenues will begin to decline, and since the market is now extremely unstable, it is difficult to hope that inflation will be blocked.

“Russia has a completely unpredictable economic dynamics: jumps in exchange rates and inflation happen all the time,” says Pavel Kudyukin, a member of the Council of the Russian Confederation of Labor. – Accordingly, it is impossible to build long-term forecasts. And there is no answer to the question at what age one should start saving for old age and whether it will be possible to accumulate a certain amount. The long-term savings program is the brainchild of officials, whom the bulk of the population, a large part of which has a miserable income, is somehow not accustomed to trust. The state’s calculation of the activity, consciousness and independence of citizens in this matter is unrealistic. In English, this is called wishful thinking – wishful thinking.

As for the 2 million people specifically mentioned by Siluanov with higher incomes (and a level of financial literacy above average), it is not certain that they will be attracted by the new mechanism: most likely, according to Kudyukin, they will prefer (or have already preferred) alternative options for securing their old age.

“In order to receive an increase in pension of at least 30 thousand rubles, you should start putting off years from 20, from the moment you enter working age, from the date of the conclusion of the first employment contract,” says Lyudmila Ivanova-Shvets, associate professor at the Russian University of Economics. Plekhanov. “If you allocate 10 thousand monthly for 30 years, having an initial contribution of at least 50 thousand, you can eventually accumulate 6 million rubles.” At the same time, according to the expert, the figure of 2 million potential participants in the long-term savings program looks quite realistic. “Among the Russian youth, there are many who are seriously concerned about the topic of an increase in their future pension,” she believes.