The Russians bought a record amount of “tok” currency: not far-sighted

Analyst Belyaev appreciated the decision of Russians to buy dollars and euros

In November, exporters increased foreign currency sales to almost maximum: they gave 91% of their proceeds to the market. This had a positive impact on the ruble, the exchange rate of which strengthened by 4.2% in the last autumn month. The effect could have been stronger, but citizens began to buy cheaper dollars and euros. As a result, almost 163 billion rubles worth of “toxic” currency was purchased over the month, which is a third more than observed in October and four times higher than the September figures, according to a review by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Candidate of Economic Sciences, financial analyst Mikhail Belyaev explained to MK whether such behavior will benefit his compatriots.

— Why did people rush to buy currency?

— Due to high inflation. According to official sources, at the end of the year it will be at the level of 7.5%, and according to the sensations in your wallet, it will be even higher. People rely on price tags in stores. It is enough for one product, the rise in prices for which catches the eye – eggs or chicken – to rise significantly, and for citizens this will mean a sharp increase in prices and the need to look for an opportunity to hedge their bets and preserve their savings. In addition, such a rush to buy dollars and euros means that people perceive the current state of affairs as a situation of incomplete economic stability. Despite the fact that official sources try to convince them that everything is fine, citizens think differently. And the simplest and most understandable way to save your money is to buy currency. There is no time to think about whether this is right or wrong; the action is actually automatic for many.

— What will the dollar exchange rate be in the near future?

— Currency is a derivative of the level of the economy. You cannot artificially maintain a course. It can be corrected at a certain moment with some tools, by 10% compared to how it would have developed under the pressure of objective conditions. The dollar today is trading at 91-92 rubles with a slight tendency to strengthen, taking into account the state of the economies of Russia and the United States. Objective conditions are the general state of the economy, growth rates, and its efficiency. Administrative levers – requirements for the sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters, for example – help to wipe away the speculative effect from the currency, but the fundamental factors influencing exchange rate formation do not cancel.

— Why does the tendency for the ruble to weaken continue?

— The successes of the Russian economy are achieved through the development of the military-industrial complex (MIC) and targeted achievements in other areas, which cannot be passed off as fundamental development results. First of all, you need to remember that the military-industrial complex operates on a budget, and secondly, its products are not used in further circulation. To change the situation, the private business sector needs to develop, and with such high interest rates on loans as we have now, this will be very difficult to do. The key rate is high and there is a possibility that at the last meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in December it will rise even more. That is, it will become more difficult to develop a business in conditions of expensive lending, which means that the rate of GDP growth will gradually begin to slow down, which will negatively affect the ruble exchange rate. But in the near future this impact will be insignificant. Thus, the dollar exchange rate will be at 91-92 rubles with a slight tendency towards strengthening of the American currency.

— What is the best course of action for those who want to protect their income from depreciation?

— In my opinion, buying dollars and euros now is not the most far-sighted approach to money. If you have free funds that you want to invest somewhere, then it is better to take this money and open a bank deposit at a good interest rate. Already, the most profitable offers on deposits on the market reach 15% per annum, which is twice as high as official inflation. There are now practically no other equally highly profitable instruments for saving money on the market that would be as understandable and familiar to Russians as bank deposits. No currency purchase, including dollars and euros, can compare with them.