The Russian budget deficit continues to grow: will stability remain?

What threatens the Russian economy with a constant excess of spending over budget revenues

The federal budget deficit is growing like a snowball. If in the first month of this year it was fixed at around 1.76 trillion rubles, then in February it added another 800 billion. March did not please either, as a result of which the budget deficit increased from 3.3 trillion to 4 trillion rubles according to various sources. Some experts suggest that such a gap in the country’s spending and income threatens the country’s economic and social stability.

Recall that the annual budget deficit was set at 2.9 trillion rubles. This milestone was easily overcome in the first three months of the year. And if every calendar month our expenses exceed our income by 1 trillion rubles, then what will remain in our treasury? With what money will we carry out state programs and fight poverty? Let’s put our hands in the holy of holies – in the National Welfare Fund? But it’s also not rubber…

In general, the forecasts of many experts of experts are full of pessimism. It turns out that statements from high tribunes that the Russian economy has adapted to economic sanctions from the West and that it does not care about any energy price ceilings are probably wishful thinking. And the harsh reality in dry statistics suggests the opposite: for the first quarter, there was a hole in the budget of at least 3.3 trillion rubles.

– How can we patch up such gaps in the economy?

– You need to understand that in the first quarter the filling of the budget is traditionally not as large as during the rest of the year, – explains Mikhail Belyaev, Candidate of Economic Sciences, financial analyst. – And the current increased costs are associated not only with the implementation of the SVO. On the agenda is the implementation of large-scale import substitution projects, the obligations of the state to its fellow citizens … All these are very serious expenses. At the beginning of the year, we sort of borrow resources from future periods.

– Will we be able to return them to balance the budget? .

– The government is making great efforts for this. In particular, it encourages long-term investments of the population in banking structures, develops projects for citizens to open not only deposits, but also purchase securities through investment accounts. It cannot be ruled out that the situation on the energy market may change, prices will become more favorable for us and we will receive additional income.

– How does this huge hole in the budget threaten our economy?

– In itself, the deficit is not terrible. Our total budget is under 30 trillion rubles, while we are talking about three trillion. In my opinion, the situation is far from critical. In this situation, I am worried about the position of the Central Bank. It is unlikely that the regulator will ease its monetary policy, most likely, it will leave the key rate within 7.5%.

– Why is it bad?

– Now, when such conditions have developed, it is necessary to work especially actively with our own producers, create conditions for them so that they fill the budget and that this deficit is reduced. The current key rate does not allow to “stir up” the economy. Producers cannot take a loan for development because of the high key rate… We have a misconception that the treasury is filled thanks to foreign economic income. This is a primitive understanding of the whole mechanism. There are many methods to encourage producers to give economic agents the opportunity to work in the domestic market.

Is it realistic to reach the deficit of 2.9 trillion rubles planned at the end of the year?

– Of course, this figure sounds optimistic, but it is realistic to achieve it if investments are attracted. Recently, in the reports of various departments, one can feel a certain passivity, a simple statement of facts: “the income of the population amounted to …”, “growth rates have developed …” What does it mean to have developed? It is necessary to influence both growth rates and incomes, direct them to the development vector we need.

– How much, with such a budget deficit, inflation will eat from our income?

– Inflation is an increase in prices in the retail market. In Russia, its main reason is monopoly pricing, the influence of large retail companies. Are we going to pay attention to the real cause of inflation and fight it? In the meantime, we are fighting inflation only by raising the key rate of the Central Bank and strangling our own economy at the same time.