The ruble will face new challenges in April: what will the exchange rate be?

Analyst Razuvaev: “There is a shortage of currency in the market”

There are no shocks in the foreign exchange market yet: the volatility of the ruble has decreased, there are no records or anti-records, even the terrorist attack in Crocus has not affected the dynamics in any way. In general, in March, and in the previous few months, the rate was trading in the range of 90-93 rubles per dollar. But what will happen in April, when the authorities will have to decide whether to extend or not extend the validity of the presidential decree on the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters?

In any case, you definitely shouldn’t expect the Russian currency to strengthen. Geopolitical and sanctions risks remain in force, capital outflow continues, imports are growing, and exports, on the contrary, are declining. Plus, there is still a high demand for foreign currency to buy out shares of Russian companies from foreign owners.

As for the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings, there is no confirmation yet that the measure, valid until April 30, 2024, will be extended. In January, First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov said that the government was in favor of an extension until the end of the year, given the effectiveness of the mechanism. In turn, the Bank of Russia does not see any compelling reasons for this, as Elvira Nabiullina has repeatedly stated. If the decree is not extended, sales of foreign currency on the domestic market will decrease, and accordingly, the ruble will most likely enter a new phase of weakening.

“A lot depends on this decision,” says Alexander Razuvaev, a member of the supervisory board of the Guild of Financial Analysts and Risk Managers. – The Central Bank is definitely against it, the Ministry of Finance is definitely for it. Let’s wait and see whose arguments are stronger. Since the regulator did not change the key rate, leaving it at 16% per annum, it means that he is confident in his choice. I don’t think that the exchange rate will change dramatically in April, but it is obvious that a foreign currency shortage is forming in the foreign exchange market. The situation is seriously affected by the state of the balance of trade and payments, which is far from ideal: the economy is still heavily dependent on the price of oil. In general, there is little good now: imports are growing, and the oil ceiling of $60 per barrel is cutting our export revenues.

– What about the budget deficit, what is its role now?

– Well, he’s not that scary, and his influence on the course is small. Plus, the Ministry of Finance plans to carry out large-scale privatization in order to increase revenues from the sale of state property almost a hundred times – from 1 billion to 100 billion rubles. This should have a positive effect on treasury revenues.