The ruble went into a tailspin: a frightening figure of the depreciation was named

Will the dollar cross the mark of 90 rubles by the end of April

The ruble exchange rate was thrown back almost a year ago. The dollar has gained 15% since the beginning of 2023. Back on April 3, the American currency could be bought for 77 rubles, now – for 82. Forecasts for the exchange rate for the spring are one worse than the other. Most likely, the Russians will soon face the harsh reality in which the dollar will cost 90. MK spoke with experts and found out what factors affect the stability of the “wooden”, and whether the ruble is threatened with devaluation in the foreseeable future.

The ruble is updating the lows since April 2022. Analysts and market participants are discussing several main reasons. The main one is a sharp increase in budget expenditures caused by geopolitical tensions. Data on the failure of exports also influenced: although world oil prices are rising (a barrel of Brent costs over $86), raw materials are supplied from Russia at an average price of the domestic grade Urals of $48-49. Another important event that had an impact on the foreign exchange market is a record capital outflow due to the departure of Western investors: in total, as a result of transactions for the sale of their shares, foreigners will withdraw up to $20 billion in 2023.

One of the clearest examples, which also influenced the fall of the “wooden” one, is that Shell threatens to withdraw about 95 billion rubles (1.2 billion) from Russia after leaving the Sakhalin-2 project. This is a fairly large amount for the Russian currency market.

The market is actively discussing another one – a conspiracy reason that could send the national currency to the bottom. A number of analysts believe that the Russian financial authorities could carry out a correction of exchange rates with their own hands. A weak ruble is extremely beneficial to the budget, because exporters receive revenue in foreign currency, and the more expensive the dollar, the higher their profits and more taxes are transferred to the budget. Meanwhile, the budget in the first quarter broke the record for the size of the deficit – about 3 trillion. rubles. But most of the experts we interviewed do not believe that the current weakening of the national currency is artificial, since a too strong fall of the ruble is fraught with inflation acceleration, in which the financial authorities are clearly not interested.

Meanwhile, according to the forecasts of most financiers, the ruble will continue its fall in this vein. The most important thing for the positive dynamics of the Russian currency in May is not to go into the scenario of an extreme fall in the exchange rate, which means not to cross the dividing line of 84-85 per US dollar, says TeleTrade analyst Alexei Fedorov.

“As for a longer forecast horizon, say until the end of September, the weakening of the Russian currency in July-August (and these are traditionally weak months for the ruble) will resume again and possibly even accelerate. Probably up to 88-93 per US dollar,” he said.

According to Fyodor Sidorov, a private investor and founder of the School of Practical Investing, there are currently no factors to strengthen the national currency, except for oil prices. But it is already clear that world quotes do not support the ruble, since everything determines the figures of the budget and exports.

“The devaluation of the ruble will continue, even the government recognizes this, which recently revised the forecast for the average value of the dollar this year at the level of 77 rubles,” the expert notes. “During the year, it will be revised more than once, because the dollar in the short term of one or two months may rise to 85 rubles or more.”

At some point, the national currency will probably consolidate at new levels or roll back, but this will be a level above 80 rubles per dollar, says Ivan Samoylenko, managing partner of B&C Agency. “You should not expect that the rate will return to the range of up to 75-80 rubles. And then the weakening will continue and the dollar may rise to 85 rubles, and the euro will cost 93-94 rubles, ”concludes the interlocutor of MK.

Read also “The ruble will continue to collapse: four analysts gave sad forecasts”