The ruble was predicted to reach 87 per dollar

Financial analyst Sergei Drozdov: “The prospects are quite good”

The market exchange rate of the ruble continues to strengthen, the dollar fell below 93 for the first time since September 12. The main unconditional reason is the decision of the authorities on the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters. But it is not yet clear how long the emerging trend will last and what values ​​the Russian currency will reach.

On Wednesday, October 25, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange dropped to 92.96 rubles, the euro to 98.78. According to analysts, several factors are contributing to the strengthening of the ruble today. Among them are the tax period, which will last until October 30, the high level of the Central Bank key rate, as well as rising world oil prices. Now the Brent mark is firmly established above $90 per barrel, and there is a high probability that the price of raw materials will continue to rise amid the worsening situation in the Middle East.

However, all this can be considered only a “side dish” for the main dish. The ruble began to rise on October 17, the day after the release of a presidential decree obliging a number of Russian exporters to repatriate and sell foreign currency earnings. In mid-October, Vladimir Putin pointed to the optimal dollar exchange rate for the budget – “slightly lower” than the then value of 97.3. Based on his words, the desired range seems to be around 92-95 rubles to the “American”. In fact, the threshold has already been reached.

“Exactly what the markets were expecting is happening. A strict measure of foreign exchange control has worked: exporters are ordered to credit at least 80% of foreign currency earnings to Russian accounts within 60 days from the date of receipt, and then sell at least 90% of these funds on the domestic market, says financial analyst Sergei Drozdov. “And now, when the rate quickly reached the limit of 93 rubles, it has quite a good prospect of reaching 87. Moreover, against the backdrop of a likely increase in the key rate at the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank on October 27.”

But the chief researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Igor Nikolaev, does not believe that the ruble will consolidate at 90 per dollar. For this, he said, a change in the situation with the trade balance is necessary: ​​it is necessary for exports to begin to sharply increase in value terms, and imports to decline. However, nothing, including high oil prices, indicates this yet.