The ruble unplannedly became one of the main topics of the financial congress
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The exchange rate of the ruble became one of the most discussed issues of the International Financial Congress, although the topic of the currency did not appear in the program in principle. The Central Bank, under whose auspices the forum is being held, rejected hints that the regulator should intervene in the situation, and attributed the anomalous weakening to market factors – primarily the trade balance, which sharply decreased year on year. Representatives of the regulator traditionally do not make estimates on the exchange rate, but from their rhetoric it generally followed that the dollar should correct downward. Exporters have ceased to evenly sell foreign exchange earnings, which creates pressure and volatility, explained Ksenia Yudaeva, First Deputy Chairman of the Bank of Russia.
Analysts polled by Vedomosti are not very optimistic about the strengthening of the exchange rate. In the second half of the year, the currency will cost an average of 87-90 rubles / $, follows from the expectations of analysts polled by Vedomosti. But the range of estimates is quite wide – from 75 to 95 rubles / $. Moreover, the majority of experts – five out of nine – allow the average exchange rate to exceed 90 rubles. in the remaining months of the year. But none of the interviewed analysts expects the average exchange rate for the second half of the year to exceed 95 rubles/$.
The maximum price of the dollar at the auctions of the Moscow Exchange on July 6 was 93.85 rubles, the euro – 102 rubles. At the close of trading, the dollar was worth 92.30 rubles. (+1.30 rubles per day), euro – 100.00 rubles. (+1.00 rub.).
According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, which underlies the formation of the federal budget, the exchange rate for the year will be at the level of 76.5 rubles/$.
Ruble in the second half of the year
The head of Sberbank German Gref, during his speech at the financial congress, called the ruble exchange rate a “float”, which reflects the state of the Russian economy. “Now this float has jumped up, but there will be an adjustment to the new realities of all sectors of the economy, and some new stabilization will come,” the banker added, commenting on the sharp rise in the ruble exchange rate in the past few days.
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